Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s fight for survival: What’s at stake in Thailand’s court verdict

Thailand’s focus will be fixed on the Constitutional Court this Friday (August 29), as embattled Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra awaits a ruling that could end her fledgling political career and reshape the country’s political landscape.

The court is set to rule on whether she breached ministerial ethical standards during a June 15 phone conversation with former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen.

Hun Sen, who stepped down in 2023 after nearly four decades in power and handed the helm to his son Hun Manet, still retains considerable political clout in Cambodia.

In the leaked phone call, reportedly recorded without Paetongtarn’s knowledge and later posted on Hun Sen’s social media, the Thai PM appeared to appease the Cambodian strongman while criticising Thailand’s 2nd Army commander for restricting cross-border movement.

On June 19, 36 senators petitioned the charter court, accusing Paetongtarn of violating ethical standards enshrined in the Constitutional Court and failing to protect Thailand’s national interests and dignity.

On July 1, the nine-member court unanimously accepted the case and voted 7:2 to suspend Paetongtarn from duty, pending the final verdict scheduled for August 29.

Separately, activists in many provinces filed police complaints accusing her of jeopardising national security – a criminal offence that in theory carries the death penalty.

Paetongtarn has denied wrongdoing, insisting that she aimed to prevent armed clashes at the border and her remarks to Hun Sen were merely a negotiating tactic. This defence was also included in her court testimony.

Resignation ruled out

Analysts note that Friday’s verdict can only go two ways – guilty or not guilty – though some suggest a third way: resignation. If Paetongtarn quits, the court would have little choice but to dismiss the case.

However, this option has been ruled out by senior figures in her Pheu Thai Party. The PM’s secretary-general, Prommin Lertsuridej, last week dismissed speculation of her stepping down before the court ruling.

“The prime minister will not tender her resignation. Everything is proceeding as per the Constitutional Court’s review process,” he said, urging the media to stop “confusing society” with rumours.

Some legal experts, meanwhile, suggest that Paetongtarn is mounting her defence around the notion of an “honest mistake due to inexperience”.

This “honest mistake” line of argument was successfully employed by Paetongtarn’s father, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, 24 years ago, when he was accused of filing false financial reports with the anti-graft agency. He claimed that he had inadvertently failed to list all his assets when serving as deputy PM in 1997 and that he was confused about the law.

In June 2001, the charter court’s 15 judges narrowly cleared him by a vote of 8:7, allowing him to continue as prime minister.

Gloomy days ahead’

Olarn Thinbangtieo, lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, said that regardless of the verdict, the outlook is grim for Paetongtarn, her Pheu Thai Party and her father, who is also the premier’s mentor.

Though Paetongtarn is the official party leader, Thaksin is widely regarded as Pheu Thai’s patriarch and de facto leader, wielding influence over the ruling party’s decisions and policies.

Olarn said that even if Paetongtarn is acquitted, she, her father and her party would still need to “work hard” to restore public trust. If she is spared, Pheu Thai is likely to push aggressively to consolidate control over the bureaucracy and undermine its coalition partner-turned-rival Bhumjaithai Party, he added.

“Pheu Thai will go full steam to push its policies and ensure that new bureaucrat appointees help boost its power base,” the analyst said.

He also expects the ruling party to inflict severe political damage to Bhumjaithai, which pulled out of the Pheu Thai-led coalition soon after the phone call was leaked in mid-June.

Power games, political manoeuvres

Relations between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai had already soured amid rumours that the latter – the coalition’s second-largest partner – might be sidelined. Many observers say the leaked call gave the party a good excuse to exit without hurting its image.

Since then, Bhumjaithai has been dogged by two major cases: allegations of rigging votes during last year’s senatorial election, and the Khao Kradong land dispute in Buri Ram.

Olarn said Pheu Thai was expediting these cases to trigger defections from Bhumjaithai and boost its own numbers before the House of Representatives is dissolved to make way for a new election.

Several Bhumjaithai executives have been accused of electoral fraud along with 138 senators, who were elected in a voting system that was marred by allegations of fraud and manipulation.

If the accused Bhumjaithai heavyweights are implicated, the Election Commission is likely to call on the Constitutional Court to dissolve the party for allegedly undermining the country’s political system.

The Khao Kradong case, meanwhile, involves more than 900 contested plots spanning 5,000 rai (800 hectares) claimed by the State Railway of Thailand.

In early August, the Interior Ministry – previously overseen by Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul and now under Pheu Thai’s Phumtham Wechayachai – revoked deeds for 12 plots of land covering 288 rai tied to the Chidchob family, Bhumjaithai’s political powerhouse.

The Chidchob family, Buri Ram’s most powerful political dynasty, has wielded significant influence over Bhumjaithai. The family’s patriarch, Newin Chidchob, founded the party in 2008, and his younger brother Saksayam served as its secretary-general from 2012 to 2024. He was then succeeded by Newin’s son Chaichanok.

Who could be next PM?

Olarn reckons that if the court removes Paetongtarn from office, Pheu Thai would have to nominate its final reserve candidate – Chaikasem Nitisiri. However, the analyst reckons smaller coalition allies would have greater leverage as the ruling party will need every vote available to support its PM candidate.

Olarn said he believes Bhumjaithai, now seen as aligned with the conservatives, will also compete fiercely to form the next government.

Apart from Chaikasem, the other five contenders for the top post are Bhumjaithai leader Anutin, Palang Pracharath’s General Prawit Wongsuwan, United Thai Nation’s General Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, and Democrat Party leader Jurin Laksanawisit. Analysts rate Chaikasem, Anutin and Prayut as the strongest.

However, Olarn ruled out the possibility of Prayut – who led the 2014 coup to depose the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra – agreeing to lead a coalition with Pheu Thai.

He warned that such a combination would damage both Pheu Thai’s and Prayut’s image, though it could still emerge through a “special deal”. Yet, he added, any partnership born of such an agreement would be short-lived.

As for Paetongtarn, he said he believes she will be removed because what she did clearly breaches ethical standards.

“But in Thai politics, nothing is ever certain,” he said, citing the Constitutional Court’s decision to oust Paetongtarn’s predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, despite widespread speculation he would be spared. He was ousted on August 14, 2024, for gross ethical violation by appointing a Cabinet minister with a criminal conviction.

Meanwhile, Olarn urged the public to focus less on back-room political deals and more on the substance of the case.

“Speculation that the Constitutional Court is politically manipulated only undermines confidence in the judiciary. We have already seen failures in the administration and legislation. Please leave the judiciary alone,” he said.