5-7% export growth is projected due to 19% US tariff rate - TNSC

The Thai National Shippers Council has adjusted its export growth projection for 2025 to 5-7%, from 1-3%, thanks to the 19% reciprocal tariff rate imposed on Thai imports to the US market, according to Thanakorn Kasetsuwan, the council’s chairman.

He said that the 19% tariff, which is on a par with that imposed on several other ASEAN countries, will make Thai products competitive in the US market and this will help increase Thai exports this year by 5-7%, instead of 1-3% as previously projected if the rate would have been 36%.

He noted, however, that since the tariff burden will partially be borne by the US importers of Thai goods, they are expected to demand that Thai exporters share the tax burden by reducing their export prices. This, in turn, will affect producers in Thailand, such as farmers, who may have to reduce their profit margins.

He pointed out that the US consumer will also be impacted, by having to pay more for imported products, but not by as much as the 19% tariff in the case of Thai imports.

Even though 19% is a marked improvement on the feared 36%, Thanakorn predicted that Thai imports to the US market are likely to drop and Thai exporters must try to offset this falloff by increasing exports to other markets, possibly triggering a global price war.

He urged the government and the private sector to work closely to increase the competitiveness of Thai businesses, by trying to reduce production costs, such energy and financial costs, or by delaying the minimum wage increase.

While welcoming the 19% tariff rate, Commerce Permanent Secretary Jatuporn Buruspat said it will impact small businesses, adding that the Commerce Ministry has set up the One Stop Service centre, to provide counselling and advice to business operators.