Thaksin verdicts: Two rulings that could reshape Thailand

Exactly two years after returning from a 15-year period of self-exile, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will face a crucial court verdict on Friday (August 22) – one that could shape not just his own future but that of Thailand.

In the first of two criminal cases triggered by his return on August 22, 2023, judges will rule whether Thaksin insulted the monarchy during a 2015 media interview.

In the other case, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders is set to rule on September 9 whether Thaksin’s health warranted his six-month stay at the Police General Hospital instead of in prison.

Two rulings in weeks

The second case is believed to pose a bigger threat to Thaksin. In the first, the ex-PM could appeal a guilty verdict and mount a legal battle in the Supreme Court that could drag on for years.

However, if the top court finds that prison and hospital officials acted improperly to help him remain hospitalised for 180 days with no serious illness, he could be sent immediately back to prison.

Following his return two years ago, Thaksin’s combined eight-year sentence for three corruption convictions was reduced to one year under a royal pardon.

Critics claim the alleged “hospital plot” stemmed from Thaksin’s years-old declaration that he would not spend a single day behind bars. Jatuporn Prompan, Thaksin’s former ally turned bitter critic, claimed the ex-premier feared attacks from fellow inmates.

Thaksin was transferred from Bangkok Remand Prison to the Police General Hospital on the day of his return, remaining there until his parole release on February 18 last year.

He returned on the same day as Srettha Thavisin of the Thaksin-influenced Pheu Thai Party was elected prime minister.

Srettha was dismissed by the Constitutional Court in August last year for an ethical breach, only to be replaced by Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who also leads the ruling party.

Thaksin, 76, is widely regarded as Pheu Thai’s patriarch and de facto leader, wielding influence over the ruling party’s decisions and policies.

He was ousted after five years in power by a military coup in September 2006 while he was in New York to attend a United Nations general meeting.

He returned to Thailand in February 2008 after his proxy People’s Power Party won the election and formed a government.

He then left the country in July to attend the 2008 Beijing Olympics, marking the start of his 15 years abroad. In October that year, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders sentenced him in absentia to two years’ imprisonment for power abuse.

The 2015 interview

In May 2015, Thaksin gave an interview to South Korean media Chosun Ilbo, in which he allegedly accused privy councillors – the King’s advisers – of helping to orchestrate the 2014 military coup that ousted the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, his sister, a year earlier.

In November 2015, the Army filed a complaint accusing Thaksin of violating Article 112 of the Criminal Code (the lese majeste law), under which defaming, insulting or threatening the King, the Queen, the heir-apparent or the regent is punishable with three to 15 years in prison.

The Attorney General agreed to press charges in September 2016, and Thaksin was formally indicted in January last year, one month before his parole release. The ex-PM denies the allegation while declaring he remains loyal to the monarchy.

Thaksin pleaded not guilty and was released on 500,000-baht bail on the condition that he remains in the country. He claimed that the police were pressured to accept the Army’s complaint by the post-coup junta.

After testimony from both prosecution and defence witnesses in July, Thaksin’s legal team expressed confidence in winning a favourable verdict.

Lead lawyer Winyat Chartmontree said the prosecution’s evidence was incomplete and no witnesses had offered definitive proof of Thaksin’s guilt. Much of the witness evidence was opinion and thus biased, the lawyer said.

In an apparent sign of their confidence, Thaksin’s legal team decided to call only three witnesses from their original list of 14 – former deputy prime minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, former Prime Minister's Office permanent secretary Tongthong Chandransu, and Thaksin himself.