From boom to bust: What happens when Thai universities run out of students?

Thailand’s declining birth rate is beginning to take a toll on universities, according to experts. As of late June, many higher education institutes were still accepting applications due to unfilled seats – a stark contrast to the days when university admission was fiercely competitive.

“The situation is even worse than we initially thought,” said Prapansiri Suksoaraj, the former dean of Srinakharinwirot University’s Faculty of Education. She was referring to the struggle many varsities now face in attracting students as the teenage population falls in line with plummeting birth rates.

The annual number of births in Thailand has dropped from over 1 million prior to 1983 to just 700,000-800,000 between 2003 and 2006, resulting in a shrinking population. With approximately 390 higher education institutes across the country and not every student pursuing a university degree, the supply of places now far exceeds demand.

Asst Prof Teerakiat Kerdcharoen of Mahidol University noted in a recent Facebook post that university enrolments fell to just 350,000 students in 2023.

“The number of new students at some institutions is so shockingly low that closing or merging universities is no longer unthinkable,” Prapansiri said. She did not name the institutes under threat.

She pointed out that while Thailand has around 390 universities, the United Kingdom, with a similar population of around 70 million, has only 165 recognised universities, and the Philippines, with a population of over 110 million, has roughly 300.

Adapt to survive

A study by the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) warns that Thai universities must adapt quickly or face a looming crisis driven by demographic decline.

Thailand saw an average of 1 million births per year between 1963 and 1983. By 2024, however, that figure had plummeted to 461,421 as a decades-long downward trend culminated in the lowest annual birth rate for 75 years.

The TDRI has cautioned that failure to adjust strategies and respond to demographic and technological advances could push some educational institutions to the brink.

Apart from the drop in student numbers, universities must also contend with disruptive technologies that are reshaping the job market and educational needs.

“Universities must ensure that their courses equip graduates with modern skills and up-to-date knowledge that aligns with the demands of the labour market,” the institute urged.

Large, well-established universities won’t feel the pinch from the demographic downturn until at least 2032 since they are more attractive to students, the TDRI said.

However, smaller institutions – which serve as a fallback when places at top universities are filled – are already in trouble.

In the immediate firing line if the demographic trend continues are the 38 Rajabhat universities across Thailand.

These were originally set up to serve students in the provinces beyond the country’s large urban centres.

“Half of the Rajabhat universities are in small provinces,” noted Adisorn Naowanondha, president of the Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University. He added that improved transport links have led many students upcountry to opt for bigger universities in nearby provinces.

“Some [Rajabhat universities], especially in eastern Thailand, are already in crisis. However, most of us are still doing okay this year,” he said.

Adisorn said Nakhon Ratchasima’s population is large enough to ensure a constant flow of new enrolments at his own institution. This year, Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University reported a healthy intake of over 4,000 new students.

New strategies for a new era

Adisorn urged universities struggling with declining enrolments to switch their focus to upskilling and reskilling courses for adult learners, along with community-based research.

The 2004 Rajabhat University Act tasks these institutions with providing not just undergraduate education but also aiding community development and supporting secondary school students.

“Rajabhat universities should partner with companies and businesses to create more opportunities for students,” he said.

Malinee Jutopama, Buriram Rajabhat University president and head of the Rajabhat University President Council, echoed Adisorn’s call for reform.

She noted that while the Faculty of Education remains popular with students, courses like public health have lost their appeal among the younger generation.

“We have decided to cancel any programme that fails to reach 50% enrolment for three consecutive years,” she said. “We are also constantly updating our curriculum.”

Malinee gave the example of her institute’s ceramics courses, which were revised to focus on design, marketing and community partnerships after losing their appeal among students. Similarly, the textile programme has switched emphasis to branding and entrepreneurship.

“Several of our graduates have successfully launched their own brands,” she said proudly.

Big universities must also change

Prof Dr Supasawad Chardchawarn, president of Thammasat University, warned that all institutions will have to adapt and evolve within five years if they want to stay afloat in a rapidly changing world.

“We cannot deny that the old role of universities as the primary source of knowledge has diminished, as information is now easily accessible online,” he said, adding that future employers will care more about skills than degrees.

Thammasat University was making changes to meet those new demands, he said.

“We will implement mandatory internships by 2027 and are already working with industry partners.” These partners will be encouraged to co-teach some classes to ensure students graduate with relevant, job-ready skills.

Recommendations for the future

Surachai Sathitkunarat, president of the Office of the National Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Policy Council, said Thai universities should begin offering non-degree programmes and rethink the age group they serve.

“Focus on personalised education through new platforms and learning models,” he urged.

To survive, he said, institutions must offer diverse, flexible learning options, forge strong partnerships and collaborations with top universities, maintain high-quality teaching staff, and align with international standards. They must also offer an attractive study environment.

The urgent mission is to equip their students with future-proof skills and provide intensive upskilling and reskilling classes for working-age people, he added.