Thai economy projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025

The Thai economy is expected to grow by 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, supported by recovering domestic consumption, an expanding industrial sector, and increased exports to trading partners outside the US market.

The new projection for Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) marks a slight increase from the official forecast of 2.1% released in April 2025, said Finance ministry spokesman Pornchai Thiraveja.

Pornchai, who also serves as director-general of the ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), said private consumption is expected to expand by 3.1% year-on-year in 2025.

This is reflected in the steady growth of value-added tax (VAT) revenues over the past nine consecutive quarters, making private consumption a key driver of national economic growth.

Private investment is also anticipated to play a significant role in driving GDP growth. It is projected to expand by up to 3% year-on-year in 2025, compared to just 0.4% in the April forecast.

This rise is largely attributed to newly approved investment projects by the Board of Investment (BOI), which total over 1 trillion baht in the first half of the year.

While public consumption and investment are projected to rise by 1.2% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively, the government’s new comprehensive economic stimulus plan, worth 157 billion baht, is expected to further strengthen the national economy.

The spokesman added that the value of Thai exports is forecast to rise by 5.5% year-on-year, up from 2.3% in the April report. This growth is supported by increased imports from trading partners ahead of new US tariff rates expected to be announced soon.

However, a slowdown in Thai exports may occur in the second half of 2025 due to the impact of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Thai imports are projected to increase by 5% year-on-year, mostly in the form of capital goods to support domestic production.

To mitigate the impact of the US tariff policy—especially on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)—the Finance Ministry will introduce measures to support the domestic private sector, including special soft loan programs offered by designated banks to improve liquidity and address emerging challenges.

According to the FPO director-general, the national economy remains stable. Thailand’s current account surplus is estimated at 14.6 billion US dollars, or about 2.9% of GDP. The general inflation rate is expected to remain low at around 0.4% year-on-year, with limited impact from the Thai-Cambodian border tensions.