Making sense of People’s Party’s conditions for Anutin

The People’s Party has done something unprecedented in Thai politics. It has declared full support for Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul as Thailand’s next prime minister – but will not join his government.

This marks a dramatic departure from the tradition of horse-trading among political parties when forming a coalition government. But to be clear, the People’s Party is not being entirely generous. Its crucial support for Anutin comes with many strings attached.

The party has laid down a series of conditions, all of which have been readily accepted by Anutin and his would-be coalition partners.

Here are the pre-conditions and their rationale:

House dissolution within four months

With this demand, the People’s Party seeks to ensure that Anutin serves only as a transitional leader, whose primary obligation is to call a snap general election.

Political observers believe the party is convinced it would gain from an early poll. If so, the next election could be held in early 2026 – more than a year ahead of the scheduled vote in early 2027.

The People’s Party is confident in its popularity, particularly among young and urban voters with its progressive agenda. Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai Party has seen its approval rating steadily decline due to its failure to address the country’s economic troubles and its handling of the border conflict with Cambodia, which culminated in the Constitutional Court’s removal of its leader, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as prime minister last week.

Bhumjaithai Party, meanwhile, is embroiled in a series of scandals that could affect its showing in the next election.

Referendum on constitutional amendment

Amending the Constitution, drafted and adopted under the military-backed government in 2017, has been a central plank of the People’s Party platform, while the Bhumjaithai Party has until most recently remained lukewarm on the issue.

Under the agreement, if the Constitutional Court requires a referendum before any amendment, Bhumjaithai and its would-be coalition partners must hold a national referendum on a comprehensive constitutional rewrite no later than the next general election.

If the Court does not require a referendum, the government must instead initiate the legislative process to draft a new Constitution through an elected assembly of charter writers within the tenure of the current House of Representatives.

Staying as minority government

To ensure that the new prime minister dissolves the House within four months, the Bhumjaithai Party must refrain from seeking a majority in Parliament.

With only 146 MPs combined, the upcoming Bhumjaithai-led coalition will operate as a minority government with its survival heavily dependent on legislative support from the People’s Party. The “remain a minority government” condition is therefore intended to allow the People’s Party to keep Anutin on a short leash.

People’s Party will stay in the opposition

The People’s Party will remain in opposition and will not take any portfolios in the new coalition government. It has pledged to closely and vigorously monitor the government’s performance.

The People’s Party is the third parliamentary reincarnation of a young political party that took the country by storm in the general elections in 2019.

But it was later disbanded by the Constitutional Court a year later. It re-emerged as the Move Forward Party which was also dissolved by the same court in 2023 with its leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat banned from politics.

The party was later reborn as the People’s Party, which itself has no prime ministerial candidate. Under the Constitution, the prime minister must be selected from the lists of prime ministerial candidates that political parties submitted to the Election Commission before the general election.