One down, but two still to go

The Shinawatras obviously cannot celebrate yet. To continue with the Squid Game analogy, it is just the first challenge and the next ones will be progressively deadlier.

In fact, today’s the Criminal Court acquittal of Thaksin Shinawatra can be a big cause for worry for his family. Out of the way are charges that the Shinawatras are victims of political persecution that applies principles and accusations with which many places else in the world are not familiar.

The next “challenges” concern more familiar ones. Suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra had told Hun Sen, on record, that a Thai military commander was “the opposition” and the Cambodian strongman should tell her what he wanted in exchange for peace.

Her court defence centres on Thai politeness and “misinterpreted” offers that could have facilitated constructive negotiations. The Constitutional Court will have to weigh that against suspicion of a secret deal fueled by past intimacy between his and her clans.

If the Constitutional Court is convinced by her defence, there is another highly-dangerous challenge remaining. And while Paetongtarn’s case can go either way, the 14th floor controversy is far less “divisive” when professional opinions are concerned.

If Thaksin is given “real” imprisonment, it may not affect Paetongtarn’s premiership legally. However, the political impact will be huge for obvious reasons.

And this case can be less ambiguous than what Thaksin said during a 2015 interview with a South Korean media outlet.

In the lèse-majesté case, the Criminal Court ruled that the video clip submitted as evidence contained only excerpts of the interview, with limited wording, while it believed the full interview had more content.

Since the prosecution could not prove whether the clip had or had not been edited, and because Thaksin’s statements were not specifically directed at King Rama IX, the court extended the benefit of the doubt to the defendant and acquitted him.

The Criminal Court noted that while Thaksin alluding to “soldiers”, certain privy councilors and even “Palace circle/insider” were apparent, he never mentioned the king directly.

The ruling also said prudence was required when considering testimonies by prosecution witnesses who participated in anti-Thaksin political activism, as it is imperative that neutral observers or audiences feel lèse-majesté has taken place.

As we can see, Thaksin survived not because of him being totally cleared, but because of lingering doubts as to who he was talking about. Convictions have to be clear, and even more so when they have to do with lèse-majesté.

Charges against him had a lot to do with “interpretation”. Unlike the ones against Paetongtarn and Thaksin regarding his “imprisonment”, they escaped a lot of Thais’ attention after he gave the interview in 2015.

This means that either Thais cared little about what he said because he was in exile at the time anyway, or not everyone considered him to be that aggressive against the royal family.

The case of the Paetongtarn-Hun Sen leaked phone clip also involved interpretation. But, unlike Thaksin’s lesè-majesté case, there is a full script of the conversation and wordings are arguably less ambiguous than the former one.

Moreover, since she accepted the authenticity of the leaked clip, there is no need to debate whether doctoring took place somehow or somewhere.

And in her case, “ethics” will come into play. They were not used in Thaksin’s lesè-majesté ruling because he did not govern Thailand when he gave the interview.

The accusers in the 14th floor case, meanwhile, are equipped with professional opinions and science or medical logic. There are also photos and video clips showing the “before”, “during” and “after” for the Supreme Court to consider. “Interpretation” will be even less than the Paetongtarn case.

It’s still a highly-treacherous week for the Shinawatras and many other Thais. Thaksin surviving today does not guarantee he will pull off a miracle in early September. It does not ensure Paetongtarn’s political survival next week, either.

Like in Squid Game, deadliest challenges are saved for last