分析：紐西蘭盧克森可望連任，但在聯合政府中籌碼轉弱

作者：Alasdair Pal、Lucy CraymerBy Alasdair Pal and Lucy Craymer

威靈頓，11月9日（路透社）——紐西蘭總理克里斯多福・盧克森（Christopher Luxon）可望在週六選舉後繼續掌權，領導一個僅以極微弱多數執政的聯合政府，但他的國家黨（National Party）可能會把關鍵政府部會的掌控權拱手讓給右翼聯盟夥伴。WELLINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is on course to hang on to power as the head of a coalition government with a razor-thin majority following Saturday's election, but his National Party could lose control of key government ministries to right-wing coalition partners.

中間偏右的國家黨與主要在野黨工黨（Labour Party）得票率雙雙首次跌破30%，流失的選票分別轉向左派、右派與中間派小黨；分析人士表示，這股趨勢反映全球選民遠離政治建制派的轉變。Centre-right National and the main opposition Labour Party both polled below 30% for the first time ever, losing votes to minor parties on the left, right and centre – a trend that analysts said mirrored a global shift away from the political establishment.

紐西蘭選舉委員會的初步資料顯示，盧克森的三黨聯盟可能僅以兩席多數執政。不過，海外選票及其他特別選票將於11月27日最終計票時納入；這些選票占總數七分之一，通常較偏向左派，屆時這項優勢可能消失。Preliminary New Zealand Electoral Commission data shows Luxon’s three-party coalition could govern with a majority of just two seats. But that margin may disappear once overseas and other special votes – which make up a seventh of the total and typically skew left – are included during the final count on November 27.

這可能意味著，盧克森需要第四個政黨支持才能執政；中間派的機會黨（Opportunity）看來將首度進入國會。That could mean Luxon will require the support of a fourth party to govern – the centrist Opportunity, which looks set to enter parliament for the first time.

西太平洋銀行（Westpac）紐西蘭首席經濟學家凱利・艾克霍爾德（Kelly Eckhold）表示，任何政府都將難以推動政策，也會缺乏強而有力的執政授權。Kelly Eckhold, New Zealand chief economist at Westpac, said any government would find it difficult to introduce policy and would lack a strong mandate to rule.

他說：「無論組成什麼政府，都將仰賴每一位國會議員的善意。」“Whatever government that's formed is going to rely on the goodwill of every individual member of parliament," he said.

小黨勢力壯大MINOR PARTIES GROW IN POWER

盧克森也必須在多名關鍵國家黨溫和派失去席次的情況下執政，其中包括財政部長尼可拉・威利斯（Nicola Willis），以及他的主要政策設計者之一、交通部長克里斯・畢夏普（Chris Bishop）。Luxon will also have to govern without key National Party moderates who lost their seats, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Transport Minister Chris Bishop, one of his main policy architects.

取而代之的是，他很可能必須拔擢聯盟夥伴內的重要成員；這些人一直尋求更保守的經濟與社會政策立場。In their place, he is likely to have to elevate key members within his coalition partners, who have been angling for more conservative economic and social policy positions.

紐西蘭第一黨（New Zealand First）希望更嚴格管控淨移民，並表示在任何新政府中，由該黨掌管紐西蘭移民部「勢在必行」。New Zealand First wants stricter controls on net migration and has said it is “imperative” it takes control of the country’s immigration ministry in any new government.

同時，自由意志主義的行動黨（ACT Party）黨魁大衛・西摩（David Seymour）週一表示，由國家黨掌管財政部「已不再站得住腳」。行動黨希望透過大幅削減公共支出來降低政府債務。Meanwhile David Seymour, leader of the libertarian ACT Party, said on Monday that National holding the finance ministry is “no longer tenable”. ACT wants to lower government debt with steep cuts to public spending.

政治評論員蓋瑞斯・休斯（Gareth Hughes）說：「隨著行動黨和紐西蘭第一黨得票率增加，他們會把國家黨進一步往右拉。」“With ACT and New Zealand First growing their vote share, they're going to be dragging them further towards the right,” said political commentator Gareth Hughes.

選舉結果反映全球趨勢ELECTION MIRRORS GLOBAL TRENDS

國家黨與工黨表現不佳，呼應已開發國家各地選舉的情況：中間偏右與中間偏左政府的支持度流向小黨。The poor showing by National and Labour mirrors elections across the developed world, where centre-right and centre-left governments have lost ground to minor parties.

在英國，左翼綠黨與右翼英國改革黨（Reform UK）的支持度都已大幅上升。在澳洲，強硬右翼的一國黨（One Nation）在部分民調中居於領先；在歐洲，法國、德國和奧地利的極右派政黨也都在擴大勢力。In Britain, the left-wing Greens and right-wing Reform UK have both swelled their support. In Australia, the hard-right One Nation has topped some opinion polls, while in Europe, far-right parties in France, Germany and Austria have all been gaining ground.

機會黨黨魁丘萊・黃（Qiulae Wong）週一表示：「人們對政治的信任普遍處於空前低點，而我們所有政治領袖和政黨都需要竭盡所能恢復這種信任。」“Trust in politics is generally at an all-time low, and we all, as political leaders and parties, need to be doing everything we can to restore that trust,” Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong said on Monday.

黃已表示，她會先與在國會取得最多席次的一方談判，使得與工黨結盟的可能性不高。Wong has said she will negotiate first with whoever secures the most seats in parliament, making a tie-up with Labour unlikely.

對國家黨而言，納入機會黨將增添另一項變數。機會黨主張全面改革稅制，包括以1.75%的年度土地稅作為財源，向多數紐西蘭居民發放每年1萬9400紐幣（1萬800美元）的全民基本收入。The addition of Opportunity, which wants an overhaul of tax policy including an annual NZ$19,400 ($10,800) universal basic income for most New Zealand residents funded by a 1.75% annual land tax, would provide an additional wrinkle for National.

休斯表示，無論聯合政府採取何種形式，盧克森都將處於脆弱地位；他在大選前數月曾挺過兩次國家黨國會議員試圖拉下他的行動。Whatever form the coalition takes, Luxon, who survived two attempts to unseat him by National Party lawmakers in the months leading up to the election, will be vulnerable, Hughes said.

他說：「我認為，短期內他作為國家黨黨魁的位置是穩固的。」“I believe he's secure as the National Party leader in the short term,” he said.

「到了下次大選時，他還會是國家黨黨魁嗎？誰知道。」“Will he be National Party leader at the time of the next election? Who knows.”

（Alasdair Pal、Lucy Craymer威靈頓報導；Lincoln Feast編輯）(Reporting by Alasdair Pal and Lucy Craymer in Wellington; editing by Lincoln Feast.)