澳洲央行杭特稱AI尚未帶來生產力提升，也未引發失業潮

雪梨，11月9日（路透社）——澳洲央行一名高階官員週一表示，目前證據有限，尚不足以顯示人工智慧已大幅提升生產力並造成大規模失業，但她警告，這項技術可能對金融穩定構成日益升高的風險。SYDNEY, Nov 9 (Reuters) - A senior Australian central banker said on Monday there was limited evidence that artificial intelligence had meaningfully lifted productivity and caused widespread job losses, but warned the technology could pose growing risks to financial stability.

澳洲央行助理總裁莎拉・杭特在雪梨一場瑞銀（UBS）會議上發言時判斷，AI對通膨的影響可能會隨時間而變化；初期會推升需求，並在經濟供給受限之際增加物價壓力。Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter judged the impact from AI on inflation would likely vary over time, initially boosting demand and adding to price pressures at a time when the economy was supply constrained.

她說：「隨著資料中心產能和相關產業擴張，供給終將趕上需求，緩解目前的瓶頸。」"Over time, supply will catch up with demand as data centre capacity and related sectors expand, easing current bottlenecks," she said.

「如果AI帶來更廣泛的生產力提升，經濟體就能以相同投入生產更多產出。因此，AI投資造成的初期通膨壓力很可能會消退。」"If AI delivers broader productivity gains, economies will be able to produce more with the same inputs. As a result, the initial inflationary pressures from AI investment are likely to dissipate."

澳洲國內資料中心投資熱潮已加劇經濟中的需求壓力，也是澳洲央行今年5度升息、將利率提高至18年高點4.85%以對抗通膨的原因之一。A boom in domestic data centre investment has added to demand pressures in the economy and is one reason the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates five times this year, taking them to an 18-year high of 4.85% to fight inflation.

杭特表示，目前證據有限，尚不足以顯示AI已實質提升生產力，也不足以顯示AI已對就業造成重大影響。Hunter said there was limited evidence AI has materially lifted productivity and that AI has had large effects on employment.

「不過，已有初步跡象顯示正在出現調整：在受AI影響較大的職業中，徵才廣告刊登和就業結果較為疲弱；而在這項技術影響較小的領域，成長則更強勁，尤其是對年輕勞工而言。」"However, there are tentative signs of adjustment, through weaker job ad posting and employment outcomes in more AI-exposed occupations, and stronger growth in areas where the technology has had less of an impact, particularly for younger workers."

她也警告，AI可能增加金融穩定風險；若AI投資報酬不如預期，資產價格可能面臨急遽重新定價，甚至出現失序調整。She also warned of the possibility AI could increase risks to financial stability, with asset prices exposed to sharp repricing or even disorderly adjustments if AI investment returns fall short of expectations.

（Stella Qiu報導；Chris Reese編輯）(Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Chris Reese)