乾旱威脅COP31主辦國土耳其，農民努力適應氣候變遷

艾茲吉・埃爾科雍（Ezgi Erkoyun）、海倫・里德（Helen Reid）及賽門・傑索普（Simon Jessop）報導By Ezgi Erkoyun, Helen Reid and Simon Jessop

路透土耳其瑟克11月9日電——農民梅赫梅特・卡巴克數十年來一直在容易乾旱的土耳其西部同一塊土地上種植棉花。今年，他改種小麥和向日葵，部分原因是這些作物需水較少，栽種成本也較低。SOKE, Turkey, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Farmer Mehmet Kabak has grown cotton on the same land in drought-prone western Turkey for decades. This year he is planting wheat and sunflower instead, in part because they require less water, making them cheaper to grow.

全球有許多農民被迫自行尋找方法，因應不斷變化的氣候，而不是等待各國在年度氣候談判中就誰應資助調適這項長期爭議達成共識；卡巴克就是其中之一。Kabak is one of many farmers worldwide forced to find their own way to cope with a changing climate rather than wait for countries to settle long-standing arguments at annual climate talks over who should finance adaptation.

農業約占土耳其經濟產出的5%。土耳其政府表示，農業也消耗全國79%的用水，其中將近一半因基礎設施和灌溉效率不彰而流失。Agriculture accounts for around 5% of Turkey's economic output. It also consumes 79% of the country's water, almost half of which is lost because of inefficient infrastructure and irrigation, the government has said.

新一輪氣候談判週一在地中海沿岸的安塔利亞（Antalya）舉行COP31時，59歲的卡巴克位在數百公里以西的瑟克，耕作面積達900德卡爾（約220英畝），他已無法承受持續虧損。As the next round of climate talks begins on Monday at COP31 in Antalya on the Mediterranean coast, 59-year-old Kabak, who farms 900 decares (about 220 acres) in Soke, hundreds of kilometres to the west, cannot afford to keep making losses.

政府補助款未能跟上與灌溉以及美國—以色列與伊朗戰爭相關的燃料和肥料成本上漲。Government support payments have not kept pace with rising fuel and fertiliser costs linked to irrigation and the US-Israeli war with Iran.

卡巴克說：「即使我們的收成受損，灌溉成本仍然上漲。我們的投入成本持續增加40%、50%、60%。燃料價格沒有停下來。」"We had increases in irrigation costs even though our harvest is damaged," Kabak said. "Our input costs increased by 40%, 50%, 60% continuously. Fuel prices did not stop."

棉花種植面積縮減SHRINKING COTTON ACREAGE

根據聯合國糧食及農業組織（FAO）2023年的資料，土耳其是全球第八大棉花生產國；但土耳其統計局預期，該國2026年籽棉總產量將年減38%，降至120萬公噸。Turkey was the world's eighth-largest cotton producer, according to 2023 data from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, but its overall seed cotton output is expected to fall 38% year-on-year to 1.2 million metric tons in 2026, according to the Turkish statistics institute.

當地一個農業團體表示，乾旱和成本上升已使瑟克地區農民在2026年將棉花種植面積縮減約60%，降至約12萬德卡爾。Drought and increased costs have led farmers in the Soke region to shrink cotton acreage by around 60% to around 120,000 decares in 2026, a local farming group said.

逾30名農民、貸款業者、企業和非營利組織受訪時告訴路透社，這個產業需要更多技術支援，以及協助取得資金。More than 30 farmers, lenders, companies and non-profit organisations told Reuters in interviews the sector needed more technical support and help gaining access to finance.

FAO土耳其代表艾謝居爾・塞利希克（Aysegul Selisik）說：「對農民而言，調適已不再是可選項，但它代價高昂，而如今多半由農民自行買單。」"Adaptation is no longer optional for farmers, but it is expensive, and today they largely pay for it themselves," said Aysegul Selisik, Turkey representative of the FAO.

水荒暫時緩解TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM WATER SHORTAGE

對農業而言，水是最迫切的調適議題。For agriculture, water is the most pressing adaptation issue.

去年，土耳其遭遇逾50年來最嚴重乾旱。降雨量比長期平均值低27%。政府資料顯示，水壩水位已有一定程度回升，但分析師表示，這種喘息很可能只是暫時的。Last year, Turkey suffered the worst drought in over 50 years. Rainfall was 27% below the long-term average. Dam levels have recovered to an extent, government data showed, but analysts say the reprieve is likely to be temporary.

路透社分析世界自然基金會（WWF）和林肯土地政策研究所（Lincoln Institute of Land Policy）的資料顯示，土耳其棉花產區流域的用水量需要減少25%至60%，才能維持健康的生態系。Reuters analysis of data from the WWF and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy showed water use in Turkey's cotton-producing basins needs to fall 25% to 60% to sustain healthy ecosystems.

現有基礎設施效率不彰。從水壩和河川引來的水經常未經過濾就抵達，在淨水基礎設施建成前，滴灌軟管就會因此阻塞。Existing infrastructure is inefficient. Water drawn from dams and rivers often arrives unfiltered, clogging drip hoses before infrastructure to clean it is built.

但農民出於各種原因不願投資。But farmers are reluctant to invest for a variety of reasons.

業界代表表示，在某些情況下，改用較新的系統可能導致初期產量下降，而農民可能難以承受。此外，許多人是在租來的土地上耕作，這意味著他們不願投資。In some cases, switching to newer systems can lead to an initial drop in yield that farmers may struggle to absorb. In addition, many work on rented land, meaning they are reluctant to invest, industry representatives said.

政府與民間部門提供部分支援STATE AND PRIVATE SECTOR OFFER SOME SUPPORT

土耳其10月公布明年預算時表示，撥給土地與水資源管理的金額將增加40.5%，並編列1740億里拉（35億美元）用於農業灌溉投資。Turkey said in October, when it laid out next year's budget, the amount set aside for land and water resources management would rise 40.5%, with 174 billion lira ($3.5 billion) earmarked for agricultural irrigation investments.

土耳其農業部告訴路透社，還需要進一步支援來補充這筆資金，包括來自民間部門的支援。The Agriculture Ministry told Reuters further support would be needed to supplement that, including from the private sector.

土耳其最大民營貸款銀行İşbank已開設56家農業專門分行，並提供滴灌和噴灌融資，還款則與收成週期連動。Turkey's largest private lender İşbank has opened 56 specialist agricultural branches and offers financing for drip and sprinkler irrigation with repayments tied to harvest cycles.

一向有支持農民歷史的Şekerbank表示，2026年前9個月，其永續金融架構下發放的貸款約有四分之一流向農業水資源管理和氣候調適。Şekerbank, which has a history of supporting farmers, says around a quarter of loans made under its sustainable-finance framework in the first nine months of 2026 went to agricultural water management and climate adaptation.

不過，缺乏自有資金或擔保品，以及部分農民無力償還貸款，限制了民間部門能提供的協助規模。許多農民也必須先墊付款項，若符合條件，之後才會獲得補償。A lack of equity or collateral and the inability of some farmers to repay the loans, however, have limited the amount of help the private sector can deliver. Many farmers also have to pay upfront and get reimbursed later, if conditions are met.

國際農業發展基金（International Fund for Agricultural Development）土耳其國家主任連恩・奇卡（Liam Chicca）說：「這讓他們非常困難。」"That makes it very difficult for them," said Liam Chicca, country director for Turkey at the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

該基金自1982年以來已在土耳其投資8.5億美元，並估計5%至10%的土耳其農民幾乎沒有能力自行資助重大投資。The fund, which has invested $850 million in Turkey since 1982, estimates between 5% and 10% of Turkish farmers have virtually no capacity to finance major investments themselves.

對土耳其以及其他政府而言，未能調適的代價可能高於現在就採取行動。For Turkey — and other governments — failure to adapt could cost more than acting now.

世界銀行2022年的分析估計，供水量減少10%可能使土耳其付出相當於國內生產毛額（GDP）6%、約500億美元的代價，原因是對農業造成影響。World Bank analysis in 2022 estimated a 10% reduction in water supply could cost Turkey 6% of GDP, or about $50 billion because of the impact on agriculture.

除了計畫增加預算外，土耳其政府也表示，民間企業可透過採用用水效率認證，並使用綠色金融工具為調適籌資，提供更多協助；土耳其希望在COP31推動這項做法。Apart from the planned budget increase, Turkey's government has said private companies could help more by adopting water-efficiency certification and using green-finance instruments to fund adaptation, an approach it hopes to advance at COP31.

監督進展的人士熱切希望，無論提出什麼方案，都不只是各國政府過去在聯合國會議上作出、卻未帶來具體改變的那類不具約束力承諾。Those monitoring progress are keen that whatever is proposed amounts to more than the kind of non-binding pledges that governments have made at previous UN conferences without delivering concrete change.

FAO的塞利希克說：「安塔利亞的成功不應以承諾來衡量，而應看有多少資金真正抵達農場和集水區。」"Success in Antalya should be measured not by pledges, but by how much finance reaches the farm and the watershed," said FAO's Selisik.

（1美元 = 50.1508里拉）($1 = 50.1508 liras)

（艾茲吉・埃爾科雍土耳其瑟克、埃布魯・通賈伊伊斯坦堡、賽門・傑索普和海倫・里德倫敦報導；芭芭拉・路易斯編輯）(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun in Soke, Turkey; Ebru Tuncay in Istanbul; Simon Jessop and Helen Reid in London; editing by Barbara Lewis)