西班牙右派在11月29日大選民調中大幅領先

作者：Mireia MerinoBy Mireia Merino

馬德里，11月9日（路透社）——最新民調顯示，在11月29日國會大選前，西班牙保守派人民黨（PP）將擊敗西班牙總理桑傑士所屬的社會黨，但需要右翼Vox黨支持，才能取得國會多數。MADRID, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Spain's conservative People's Party (PP) would beat Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialists but require the right-wing Vox to secure a parliamentary majority, according to the latest polls in the run-up to a general election on November 29.

選戰將在4天後開打，預料住房、移民和貪腐等議題將主導選情；上月造成多人死亡的火車事故引發交通部長奧斯卡・普恩特請辭，其後續效應也將持續發酵。The electoral campaign starting in four days is expected to be dominated by issues such as housing, immigration and corruption, and reverberations of last month's deadly train crash that triggered the resignation of Transport Minister Oscar Puente.

• 《西班牙人報》公布的SocioMetrica民調預估，在350席的眾議院中，人民黨和Vox黨合計可拿下約200席。社會黨將取得108席，比前一次調查多2席。這項民調以5460份線上訪問為基礎，誤差範圍為3個百分點，並顯示從左派轉向右派的選民淨流入達83.2萬人。• A SocioMetrica poll published by El Español newspaper projected around 200 seats in the 350-seat lower house for the PP and Vox combined. The Socialists would get 108 seats, two more than in the previous survey. The poll, based on 5,460 online interviews and with a margin of error of 3 percentage points, showed a net transfer of 832,000 voters from the left to the right

• 40dB為《國家報》所做調查顯示，人民黨與社會黨之間的差距縮小至2個百分點；社會黨較前次民調上升1.8個百分點，投票意向達29.9%。但右翼陣營合計仍取得約190席的可運作多數。40dB訪問了2000名線上受訪者，誤差範圍為2.2個百分點。• A survey by 40dB for El Pais showed the gap between the PP and the Socialists narrowing to 2 pp as the latter advanced 1.8 percentage points from the previous poll to 29.9% of voting intentions, but the combined right wing getting a working majority of around 190 seats. 40dB surveyed 2,000 online respondents and the margin of error was 2.2 percentage points

• 《世界報》公布的Sigma Dos民調指出，社會黨在事故後流失的支持已收復部分失地，目前可能拿下105席，但仍遠遠落後人民黨和Vox黨合計的199席。這項針對4172名受訪者的調查，誤差範圍為2.1個百分點。• A Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo pointed to the Socialists recovering some ground lost after the crash and now likely to win 105 seats, but far behind the 199 seats for the PP and Vox. The survey of 4,172 respondents had a 2.1-percentage point margin of error

• IMOP為《機密報》所做民調聚焦於選票流向，而非席次預測。該民調指出，社會黨選民忠誠度下降，人民黨選民忠誠度上升；後者主要是以Vox黨支持者流失為代價。• An IMOP poll for El Confidencial focused on vote transfers rather than seat projections, pointing to a drop in voter loyalty for the Socialists and a rise for the PP, the latter largely at the expense of Vox supporters

• 西班牙極左派政黨上月未能就共同候選人名單達成協議，降低了桑傑士繼續領導左派聯盟執政的機會。• Spain's hard-left parties last month were unable to agree on a common list of candidates, reducing Sanchez's chances of staying in power at the head of a leftist coalition

• 民調顯示，廣泛陣線可望贏得10至15席，其對手我們能黨則面臨失去國會代表權的風險。• The polls showed the Broad Front poised to win 10 to 15 seats and its rival Podemos at risk of losing its parliamentary representation

（Mireia Merino報導；Andrei Khalip和Hugh Lawson編輯）(Reporting by Mireia Merino, editing by Andrei Khalip and Hugh Lawson)