遭遇拋售後，軟銀第二季財報將面臨AI策略檢視

作者：Anton BridgeBy Anton Bridge

路透東京11月9日電——軟銀集團（SoftBank Group）將於週二公布季度財報。在AI類股重挫，以及其收購ABB機器人事業遭中國阻擋後，投資人正關注軟銀能為其策略提供多少信心。TOKYO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - SoftBank Group reports quarterly earnings on Tuesday, with investors wondering how much reassurance it will offer about its strategies amid a rout in AI stocks and after its takeover of ABB’s robotics unit was blocked by China.

這家日本科技投資公司重押人工智慧，尤其是已斥資646億美元取得OpenAI 13%股權，這引發外界質疑，一旦該產業遭遇挫折，軟銀有多大能力安然度過。The Japanese tech investment firm's big bets on artificial intelligence — particularly the $64.6 billion it has spent on a 13% stake in OpenAI — have raised questions about how well it will be able to weather setbacks for the sector.

民主黨在美國期中選舉大勝，升高了市場對資料中心建設將面臨監管審查與延宕的預期，也加深外界對AI產業報酬的懷疑。The Democratic Party's sweeping success in US midterm elections has heightened expectations of regulatory scrutiny and delays to building data centres, increasing scepticism about returns for AI industry.

研究公司Futurum Group半導體與基礎建設主管羅爾夫・布爾克（Rolf Bulk）表示：「短期建設，以及一切究竟要如何融資、能否取得供電、將部署在何處，這些問題在6個月前比現在容易回答得多。」"The near-term buildout and how exactly everything is going to be financed, whether it can be energized, where it will be deployed, are questions that were much easier to answer six months ago than today," said Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductors and infrastructure at research firm Futurum Group.

AI產業的體質對軟銀影響重大，因為軟銀已投資AI模型開發商、資料中心基礎建設、半導體和機器人等領域。The health of the AI industry has huge implications for SoftBank, which has made investments across AI model developers, data centre infrastructure, semiconductors and robotics.

軟銀以高得驚人的殖利率舉債；截至6月底，軟銀淨有息負債達10.8兆日圓（680億美元），高於一年前的6.6兆日圓。It has taken on debt at eye-popping yields and at the end of June, SoftBank had net interest-bearing debt of 10.8 trillion yen ($68 billion) compared to 6.6 trillion yen a year earlier.

對AI產業的擔憂拖累軟銀股價週五下跌11%，其債務違約保險成本則升至4年高點。軟銀股價週一下跌4.2%，今年迄今累計下跌23%。The worries about the AI sector pulled SoftBank's shares 11% lower on Friday while the cost of insuring its debt against default hit a four-year high. Its shares fell 4.2% on Monday and are down 23% for the year to date.

債務融資疑慮？DEBT-FINANCING QUESTIONS?

軟銀獲利高度波動且難以預測。LSEG訪調3名分析師對7月至9月淨利的預測，從獲利2,330億日圓（15億美元）到虧損1,130億日圓不等。SoftBank's earnings results are highly volatile and difficult to predict. Forecasts from three analysts polled by LSEG for July-September net profit range from a gain of 233 billion yen ($1.5 billion) to a loss of 113 billion yen.

財報數字將於格林威治時間0630公布，財務長後藤芳光（Yoshimitsu Goto）主持的說明會將於格林威治時間0730開始。Earnings numbers are due out at 0630 GMT and a briefing by CFO Yoshimitsu Goto will commence at 0730 GMT.

投資人也在尋求進一步以債務融資前景的指引；軟銀部分最大持股的價值已下跌，例如晶片設計公司安謀（Arm），而這些持股可作為貸款擔保品。Investors are also looking for guidance on prospects for further debt-based financing as the value of some of SoftBank’s largest holdings such as chip designer Arm, which provide collateral to take out loans, has fallen.

傑富瑞（Jefferies）分析師阿圖爾・戈亞爾（Atul Goyal）上月在報告中寫道，安謀股價明顯低於200美元，會加重軟銀財務壓力。安謀股價週五報175美元，較6月創下的歷史高點已下跌約60%。Arm’s shares meaningfully below $200 increases pressure on SoftBank’s finances, Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal wrote in a note last month. They stood at $175 on Friday, having fallen around 60% since a record high in June.

Futurum的布爾克表示，軟銀可能採取更防禦性的姿態。SoftBank could adopt a more defensive posture, said Futurum’s Bulk.

他說：「軟銀可能會發現自己處於必須停止投資、降低槓桿，甚至出售部分持股的處境。當然，這是他們過去曾做過的事。」“SoftBank may find itself in a position where they have to stop investing, de-lever and even sell down some of their positions,” he said. “Of course this is something they have done in the past.”

投資人也將關注軟銀是否可能評論，在中國阻擋其以54億美元收購ABB機器人部門後，軟銀計畫如何因應。Investors will also be looking for potential comments by SoftBank on how it plans to respond to China's blocking of its $5.4 billion takeover of ABB’s robotics division.

一名知情人士表示，ABB與軟銀樂觀認為雙方可以找到解決方案，軟銀也正在與中國主管機關磋商。ABB and SoftBank were optimistic they could find a solution and SoftBank is also in talks with Chinese authorities, according to a person familiar with the matter.

彭博新聞報導，兩家公司正在評估是否切出中國業務。The companies are weighing whether to carve out the China business, Bloomberg News has reported.

（1美元＝158.2100日圓）($1 = 158.2100 yen)

（Anton Bridge報導；Edwina Gibbs編輯）(Reporting by Anton Bridge; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)