銀行與投資人受市場拋售潮驚嚇，對AI債務轉趨謹慎

紐約，11月9日（路透社）—— 近期市場拋售潮以及市場對人工智慧（AI）技術成長軌跡的看法轉變，讓銀行與信貸投資人受到衝擊。他們正加強審視AI相關債務交易，同時對增加對借款人的曝險表現出遲疑。NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Banks and credit investors are upping their scrutiny of AI-related debt deals while showing reluctance to increase exposure to borrowers, jolted by the recent market selloff and changing sentiment toward the technology's growth trajectory.

多名銀行與信貸消息人士表示，就在幾週前，一些銀行還排隊準備為AI交易提供資金，如今卻告訴市場參與者，即使交易涉及該產業指標性科技公司的擔保，他們也不願再為更多交易提供融資。消息人士未具名透露。Some banks, which just a few weeks ago were lining up to fund AI deals, are now telling market participants they would be reluctant to finance additional deals even when they involve guarantees from the sector's marquee technology companies, according to several banking and credit sources.

近期股市下跌加劇了放貸退縮的情況。上週四，納斯達克100指數市值蒸發2.5兆美元，並使該指數進入修正區間。美國期中選舉結果也加深了市場對資料中心可能面臨更多監管的焦慮。The lending pullback has been exacerbated by a recent drop in the stock market, which erased $2.5 trillion in market value on Thursday from the Nasdaq 100, and sent the index into a correction. The US midterm election results are also adding anxiety about more oversight of data centers.

AI資料中心建設若可能放緩，恐抑制貸款成長，並衝擊投資銀行從貸款、債券銷售和股票發行所取得的手續費。這些融資工具先前協助支應了該產業的快速擴張。A potential slowdown in AI data center construction could curb loan growth and dent investment banking fees from the loans, bond sales and stock offerings that have helped finance the sector's rapid expansion.

兩名消息人士表示，這項轉變是在過去短短幾天內出現的。消息人士說，一些貸款機構即便有Anthropic和Google等公司提供支持，也不願為交易提供融資；他們未具體說明這些貸款機構的名稱。The change, according to two sources, has come in just the past few days. Some lenders have shown reluctance to finance deals even if they are backstopped by names such as Anthropic and Google , the sources said, without specifying names of the lenders.

Anthropic拒絕就其近期借款發表評論。Google也拒絕評論。Anthropic declined to comment on its recent borrowing. Google declined to comment.

「過去一年，市場對於向新型雲端業者（neoclouds）、任何正在興建資料中心或某種AI資產的公司提供債務融資，抱持毫無節制的熱情，」羅普斯與格雷律師事務所（Ropes & Gray）財務合夥人克里斯・波吉（Chris Poggi）說。他指的是那些將強大的AI運算能力出租給正在開發AI的企業的公司，這類運算能力通常以先進晶片為核心打造。"Over the past year there was unbridled enthusiasm to provide debt to neoclouds, anyone who was building data centers or some sort of AI asset," said Chris Poggi, finance partner at Ropes & Gray, referring to companies that rent out powerful AI computing capacity, often built around advanced chips, to businesses developing AI.

「債務投資人的帳簿已經滿了，現在他們正在評估，今年是否已經把可擴張的程度擴張到極限。」"Debt investors' books have become full and now they are assessing if they have extended themselves as much as they're going to extend themselves this year."

即便如此，由於借款需求極高，AI貸款市場仍將迎來更多供給。高盛研究（Goldman Sachs Research）預估，全球超大型雲端服務商（hyperscaler）債券發行額將在2027年達到4,200億美元，比其對2026會計年度2,500億美元的估計高出逾60%。Even so, much more supply is coming to the AI loan market because borrowing needs are so high. Goldman Sachs Research projects global hyperscaler debt issuance will reach $420 billion in 2027, more than 60% above its estimate of $250 billion for fiscal 2026.

其中兩名消息人士表示，投資人和貸款機構也正對經濟下行時的現金流進行壓力測試，並仔細審查支撐AI基礎建設專案的合約細節，包括服務義務、營運期限，以及大型科技客戶可在何種條件下減少或終止承諾。Investors and lenders are also stress-testing cash flows for economic downturns and scrutinizing contractual details underpinning AI infrastructure projects, including service obligations, operational deadlines and the conditions under which large technology customers could reduce or terminate commitments, two of the sources said.

許多這類交易相當複雜。晶片製造商通常會為優先債務提供支持，這些債務將用於替AI公司購買先進晶片，並且也會擔保資料中心長期租約的付款。直到最近，銀行和私募信貸業者一直受到這類貸款吸引，原因在於這些擔保可確保債務付款。Many of these deals are fairly complex. Chipmakers typically backstop the senior debt that will finance the purchase of advanced chips for an AI company and also guarantee payments on the long-term lease of the data centers. Banks and private credit players have until recently been attracted to such loans because of the guarantees that ensure debt payments.

隨著超大型雲端服務商和新型雲端業者競相為資料中心、晶片和運算基礎設施籌措更多債務，他們越來越常遇到貸款機構提出質疑：對於一個已占其貸款組合相當大比重的產業，他們究竟還想增加多少曝險。As hyperscalers and neoclouds race to raise additional debt for data centers, chips and computing infrastructure, they are increasingly running into lenders questioning how much additional exposure they want to a sector that is already taking up a large part of their loan book.

以摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）為例，截至第三季底，由其他收益型不動產支持的未償貸款達290億美元，其中包括資料中心。這是該銀行第二大商用不動產曝險，占比12%，僅次於公寓大樓。摩根大通拒絕評論。At JPMorgan Chase, for instance, loans backed by other income-producing properties, which includes data centers, were at $29 billion outstanding at the end of the third quarter. They are the bank's second-largest commercial real estate exposure at 12%, following apartment buildings. JPMorgan declined to comment.

三年前，這一比重為該銀行商用不動產貸款的8%；當時資料中心類別排名第四，落後於公寓、工業不動產和辦公大樓。That was up from 8% of the bank's CRE loans three years ago, when the data center category ranked fourth after apartments, industrial properties and office buildings.

與直接貸款機構一樣，投資人對支持哪些交易也變得挑剔得多。美國銀行（Bank of America）信貸分析師尤里・塞利格（Yuri Seliger）表示，10年期超大型雲端服務商債務的利差今年迄今已擴大約50個基點，相較之下，與AI無關的高品質工業公司利差約擴大20個基點。Meta今年稍早發行的債券以及SpaceX債券價格目前均低於面額。Like direct lenders, investors are becoming far more selective about which deals they will back. The spread on 10-year hyperscaler debt has widened by about 50 basis points year to date, versus roughly 20 basis points for high-quality industrial companies not tied to AI, according to Bank of America credit analyst Yuri Seliger. Bond prices of Meta, issued earlier this year, and SpaceX are trading below par.

在亞洲，一些銀行正確保交易有現金流支持，並仔細審查風險。In Asia, some banks are making sure deals are backed by cash flow and scrutinizing risks closely.

新加坡華僑銀行（OCBC）集團執行長陳德隆（Tan Teck Long）週五在財報說明會上表示：「我們評估的這類交易，非常重視風險面。因此，我們會圍繞這一點來安排交易結構，確保現金流確實存在。」"The kind of deals we look at, we are very focused on the risk aspect. So we structure the deals around to make sure that the cash flow is there," said Singapore's OCBC Group CEO Tan Teck Long on Friday during an earnings briefing.

信用體質較弱WEAKER CREDIT

在風險較高的AI借款人之中，這波退縮尤其明顯，例如新型雲端公司和獨立資料中心營運商。The pullback has been particularly pronounced among riskier AI borrowers such as neocloud companies and standalone data center operators.

貝爾德股票研究（Baird Equity Research）表示，甲骨文（Oracle）和CoreWeave是可能受到潛在建設延誤或暫停令影響的新型雲端公司之一。CoreWeave股價今年迄今已下跌35%，其債券價格在次級市場也大幅下挫。Oracle and CoreWeave are among the neocloud companies that could be impacted by possible construction delays or moratoriums, according to Baird Equity Research. CoreWeave's stock has fallen 35% year to date, and its bond prices have also dropped sharply on the secondary market.

一些與資料中心和晶片相關的計畫中債券發行案也遭擱置。Some planned bond offerings linked to data centers and chips are also being shelved.

一名知情消息人士表示，在納斯達克上市的新型雲端公司Nebius曾在9月探索發行高收益債券，但上月決定不推進。這家AI雲端公司未回應路透社的採訪請求。Nasdaq-listed neocloud firm Nebius had been exploring a high-yield bond issue in September, but decided not to go ahead with it last month, one of the sources familiar with the matter said. The AI cloud company did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Nebius於10月取得花旗集團（Citigroup）提供的35億美元優先擔保貸款額度，將用於資料中心開發、GPU採購及一般企業用途。Nebius in October entered into a $3.5 billion senior secured loan facility provided by Citigroup, to use for data center development and GPU procurement and general corporate purposes.

管理資產3億美元的另類資產管理公司AIP共同創辦人兼執行長傑伊・巴拉（Jay Bala）表示：「多數銀行和信貸投資人將採取觀望態度。」他指的是，在民主黨於期中選舉中橫掃國會後，AI成長將如何發展。"Most banks and credit investors will take a wait and see approach," said Jay Bala, co-founder and CEO of $300-million alternative asset manager AIP, referring to how AI growth will fare following the Democratic sweep of Congress in the midterms.

（Saeed Azhar與Nupur Anand報導；Suzanne McGee、Tatiana Bautzer及Rae Wee新加坡補充報導；Stephen Gandel、Megan Davies與Nia Williams編輯）(Reporting by Saeed Azhar and Nupur Anand; additional reporting by Suzanne McGee, Tatiana Bautzer and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Stephen Gandel, Megan Davies and Nia Williams)