分析：AI用電熱潮推動資料中心尋找二手渦輪機與噴射引擎

作者：Kavya Balaraman、Christoph Steitz、Nina ChestneyBy Kavya Balaraman, Christoph Steitz and Nina Chestney

班加羅爾/法蘭克福/倫敦，11月9日（路透社）——公用事業公司、開發商以及急著為AI資料中心供電的企業，正滿世界搜尋二手燃氣渦輪機，讓封存機組重新啟用，並改裝退役噴射引擎；原因是昂貴新設備的交貨期已拉長到下一個十年。BENGALURU/FRANKFURT/LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Utilities, developers and firms racing to power AI data centres are scouring the world for second-hand gas turbines, reviving mothballed machines and converting retired jet engines, as lead times for costly new equipment stretch into the next decade.

儘管外界對人工智慧技術風險的疑慮升高，相關股票近期也遭到拋售，但高耗能資料中心的需求仍急速攀升，使渦輪機等關鍵電力基礎設施與設備形成嚴重瓶頸。Despite growing scepticism over the perils of artificial intelligence technology and a recent selloff in related stocks, demand for energy-hungry data centres is soaring, creating a critical bottleneck for essential power infrastructure and equipment, such as turbines.

能源顧問公司伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）資深分析師奧蘿拉・特諾里奧（Aurora Tenorio）談到美國渦輪機市場時表示：「交貨期的討論明確集中在2030年至2031年的時間窗口。」"Delivery conversations (are) firmly focused on the 2030 to 2031 window," Aurora Tenorio, senior analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said about the US turbine market.

十多名經紀商、服務公司與供應商表示，這促使一些企業尋找二手與翻修設備，以及以噴射引擎為基礎的渦輪機，而不是等待訂單積壓消化完畢。That is prompting some companies to search for second-hand and refurbished equipment as well as turbines based on jet engines rather than wait for order backlogs to clear, according to more than a dozen brokers, service firms and suppliers.

設備服務供應商EthosEnergy執行長安娜・阿米卡雷拉（Ana Amicarella）說：「那個次級市場現在非常、非常熱。」"That secondary market is very, very hot right now," said Ana Amicarella, CEO of EthosEnergy, an equipment services provider.

「我們也看到賣方要價出現上升。」"We also have seen an escalation on the prices of what people are demanding."

這個市場能否解決供電吃緊問題？Can this market be the answer to the power supply squeeze?

Enverus Intelligence Research研究員努爾・庫雷希（Noor Qureshi）表示，可能只能解決一部分。Probably only partially, said Noor Qureshi, an associate at Enverus Intelligence Research.

她說：「市場供應本來就已受限，過剩供給有限，因此不太可能抵消大部分延宕。」渦輪機也只是其中一項障礙，空污許可、電網接入和其他因素同樣造成延宕。"The market is already constrained, with limited excess supply, so it is unlikely to offset a meaningful share of the delays," she said. Turbines are also just one obstacle, with air permits, grid access and other factors also causing delays.

目前沒有可靠估計可顯示，次級市場對全球每年約250億美元的渦輪機供應貢獻多少。不過，這個市場的出現本身，就證明資料中心熱潮已對各產業產生深遠影響。There are no reliable estimates of how much the secondary market is contributing to the global turbine supply worth about $25 billion a year. Its very emergence, though, attests to the profound impact the data centre boom has had across industries.

例如AI基礎設施公司Crusoe今年4月向美國ProEnergy訂購13具所謂航改型燃氣渦輪機，並形容這是快速擴張的策略性舉措；這些渦輪機以奇異航太（GE Aerospace）製造的噴射引擎為基礎。AI infrastructure firm Crusoe, for example, in April ordered 13 so-called aeroderivative gas turbines from US-based ProEnergy — which are based on jet engines made by GE Aerospace — describing it as a strategic move to scale fast.

這批渦輪機總裝置容量為650百萬瓦（MW），將部署在Crusoe位於美國的AI資料中心專案。The turbines, with a joint capacity of 650 megawatts (MW), will be deployed at Crusoe's AI data centre projects in the US.

ProEnergy與Crusoe未回應路透社進一步取得資訊的請求。ProEnergy and Crusoe did not respond to Reuters requests for additional information.

資料中心及其營運商已成為燃氣渦輪機的大客戶；在幾年前，這個市場幾乎只服務傳統公用事業公司。Data centres and their operators have emerged as big customers of gas turbines, a market that almost solely catered to traditional utilities until a few years ago.

伍德麥肯茲指出，如今全球訂單超過100吉瓦（GW），遠高於估計介於60GW至70GW的全球產能。Today, worldwide orders top 100 gigawatts (GW), according to Wood Mackenzie, well above the estimated global production capacity of between 60 GW and 70 GW.

投資銀行Jefferies的分析師估計，光是美國資料中心今年的需求就接近17GW，且到2028年這個數字可能增加到三倍以上。Analysts at investment bank Jefferies estimate that US data centres alone account for nearly 17 GW of demand this year and that figure can more than triple by 2028.

他們表示，雖然全球燃氣渦輪機製造產能正在成長，預計2028年將升至約87GW，但仍將遠低於預期129GW的渦輪機發電需求。While global gas turbine manufacturing capacity is growing and is expected to rise to around 87 GW in 2028, it will still be well short of the 129 GW in expected turbine power demand, they said.

主導市場的西門子能源、奇異維諾瓦（GE Vernova）與三菱重工（Mitsubishi Heavy Industries）都表示，AI熱潮推升訂單超出其產能。Siemens Energy, GE Vernova and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which dominate the market, all say the AI boom has driven orders beyond their production capacity.

特諾里奧表示，在美國，現在交付一具燃氣渦輪機平均需要6年。In the United States, delivery of a gas turbine now takes six years on average, said Tenorio.

二手、翻修或改造設備也有各自挑戰。特諾里奧表示，大修過的渦輪機可能維修紀錄不清、剩餘壽命有限，長期維護服務也薄弱。改裝噴射引擎則讓人質疑，作為發電機持續運轉時是否足以勝任。Used, refurbished or repurposed equipment comes with its own challenges. Overhauled turbines can have unclear maintenance histories, limited life left and weak long-term servicing, Tenorio said. Converted jet engines raise questions about how fit they are for continuous work as power generators.

不過，以年計算的等待時間，仍確保了這個市場的吸引力。Still, waiting times counted in years ensure the market's appeal.

Sulzer美國售後市場業務負責人達拉尤斯・帕迪瓦拉（Darayus Pardivala）說：「每隔幾週，我們就會接到一次詢問，問『你能不能找到一具可放進資料中心的二手燃氣渦輪機？』」帕迪瓦拉不願透露客戶或資料中心所在地的細節。"Every few weeks we get a request to say, 'Can you find a used gas turbine to put into a data centre?'" said Darayus Pardivala, who leads the US aftermarket business of Sulzer. Pardivala would not disclose details about the clients or the centres' locations.

成本也很重要。Costs matter too.

為資料中心開發商採購電力設備的Origin Partners管理合夥人札克・馬丘卡（Zach Machuca）表示，保養良好的二手機組每MW售價約150萬至170萬美元，翻修機組每MW約130萬美元。Well-maintained used units can sell for about $1.5 million to $1.7 million per MW, and refurbished units for about $1.3 million, according to Zach Machuca, managing partner at Origin Partners, which buys power equipment for data centre developers.

根據Aurora Energy Research，這明顯低於新渦輪機每MW約200萬至250萬美元的成本。That is markedly less than new turbines, which cost about $2 million to $2.5 million per MW, according to Aurora Energy Research.

若是較小、較便宜的機組，折扣可能更大。The discount can be greater for smaller, cheaper units.

媒合買家與渦輪機擁有者的ReflowX總經理丹・普爾（Dan Poole）表示，卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）旗下Solar Turbines製造的兩具14.5MW渦輪機，最近以1,250萬美元售出，約每MW43萬美元。他說，同款新機將花費約3,500萬美元，且需5年才能交貨；他未透露買家身分。Dan Poole, general manager at ReflowX, which connects buyers with turbine owners, said two 14.5-MW turbines made by Solar Turbines, a Caterpillar unit, recently sold for $12.5 million, or around $430,000 per MW. New ones would cost about $35 million and take five years to deliver, he said, without disclosing the buyer.

時間壓力下，若大型渦輪機難以取得，開發商就轉向小型渦輪機。美國設備供應商SVI Bremco銷售總監史考特・施里格（Scott Schreeg）表示，他們有時會在單一場址部署超過100具，並混用不同型號與品牌。Pressed for time, developers turn to small turbines if the bigger ones are hard to come by. They sometimes deploy more than 100 at a single site and mix models and brands, said Scott Schreeg, director of sales at US equipment supplier SVI Bremco.

AI熱潮影響的業者遠不只資料中心。The AI boom is affecting players far beyond data centres.

美國聯邦所有的公用事業公司田納西河谷管理局（Tennessee Valley Authority）表示，過去兩年來，所有設備——不論是新品、二手或翻修品——價格都已「大幅上漲」。The Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned US utility, said prices for all equipment — new, used or refurbished — have "increased significantly" over the past two years.

由客戶持有的非營利公用事業公司所組成的美國全國農村電力合作社協會（National Rural Electric Cooperative Association）執行長吉姆・馬西森（Jim Matheson）表示，其會員正面臨前所未有的交貨期與飆升價格。他說：「需要新增容量的合作社正轉向每一個可行選項」，包括購買翻修渦輪機。Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, which groups non-profit utilities owned by their customers, said its members were facing unprecedented lead times and surging prices. "Co-ops that need new capacity are turning to every viable option," including purchasing refurbished turbines, he said.

這波搶購吉瓦級電力的熱潮，也為稀缺燃氣渦輪機以外的替代方案打開新市場。The rush for gigawatts has also opened new markets for alternatives to the scarce gas turbines.

芬蘭瓦錫蘭（Wartsila）能源事業總裁安德斯・林德伯格（Anders Lindberg）表示，自去年春季以來，該公司已從美國資料中心接獲約3GW訂單，供應使用燃氣引擎而非渦輪機運轉的發電機組。Finland's Wartsila has booked around 3 GW of orders since spring last year from US data centres for power units running on gas engines instead of turbines, Anders Lindberg, president of the group's energy business, said.

他說：「是什麼在推動市場？交貨期、交貨期、還是交貨期。」"What's driving the market? Lead times, lead times, lead times," he said.

（Kavya Balaraman班加羅爾、Christoph Steitz法蘭克福、Nina Chestney倫敦報導；Nina Chestney撰稿；Ashitha Shivaprasad班加羅爾補充報導；Tomasz Janowski編輯）(Reporting by Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru, Christoph Steitz in Frankfurt and Nina Chestney in London; Writing by Nina Chestney; Additional reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in BengaluruEditing by Tomasz Janowski)