川普政府接納「perp」期貨，讓華爾街老牌業者風險警鈴大作

作者：Laura Matthews、Hannah LangBy Laura Matthews and Hannah Lang

紐約，11月9日（路透）——川普政府推動將新型境外永續期貨引進美國，已引發警訊。路透訪問既有交易所4名高階主管及其他主要市場參與者，他們警告，這類產品將為規模達數兆美元的衍生性金融商品市場帶來嚴重新風險。NEW YORK, November 9 (Reuters) - The Trump administration's push to bring novel offshore perpetual futures to the US is raising alarms, according to interviews with four executives at incumbent exchanges and other key market participants who warned that the products will introduce serious new risks to the multitrillion-dollar derivatives market.

永續期貨（perpetual futures，簡稱「perps」）源自非美國加密貨幣市場，全天候交易且沒有到期日，意味投資人可無限期持有部位。這類產品通常帶有槓桿，有時高達50倍，且主要由散戶或個人投資人交易。Pioneered in non-US crypto markets, perpetual futures, or "perps," trade around the clock and do not expire, meaning investors can hold positions indefinitely. They are usually leveraged, sometimes by as much as 50 times, and are predominantly traded by retail or individual investors.

根據資料供應商CryptoQuant的數據，加密貨幣永續期貨交易量在2025年達61.7兆美元，較2024年增加29%，其中很大一部分來自幣安（Binance）、Hyperliquid等大型平台，且以亞洲為主要據點。Crypto perps trading volume reached $61.7 trillion in 2025, up 29% from 2024, according to data provider CryptoQuant, with much of that on big platforms such as Binance and Hyperliquid and based in Asia.

路透訪問交易所、交易公司、資產管理公司及市場結構服務供應商高階主管後發現，各方更廣泛擔憂，若永續期貨監管不當，加上24小時交易，可能擾亂市場結構，並侵蝕2007至2009年金融危機後強化的風險管理防線。The Reuters interviews with executives at exchanges, trading firms, asset managers and market-structure providers revealed broader concerns that improperly regulated perps and 24-hour trading could disrupt market structure and erode risk-management safeguards bolstered after the 2007-09 financial crisis.

美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）5月決定正式核准在美國掛牌的加密貨幣永續期貨，令傳統華爾街交易所感到震驚；Kalshi、Coinbase、Robinhood等金融科技公司則紛紛投入這個新市場。Traditional Wall Street exchanges were alarmed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's decision in May to formally approve US-listed crypto perps, with Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood and other financial technology firms jumping into the new market.

上週，這個政府監管機關也核准了單一股票類股永續期貨。CFTC主席麥可・塞利格（Michael Selig）表示，為保護美國投資人，維持美國對這個新興市場的監督至關重要。Last week, the government regulator also approved single-stock equity perps. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has said it is important to maintain US oversight of the nascent market to protect American investors.

政府與華爾街的緊張關係TENSION BETWEEN ADMINISTRATION, STREET

大型期貨市場營運商芝商所集團（CME Group）正控告CFTC，要求推翻其5月決定，主張CFTC錯將永續期貨歸類為期貨，造成不公平競爭，並淡化其風險。一個代表芝加哥期權交易所全球市場（Cboe Global Markets）與城堡證券（Citadel Securities）的團體上週也以相同理由提告，要求撤銷CFTC近期對類股永續期貨的核准。CME Group, the big futures market operator, is suing the CFTC to overturn its May decision, arguing it has wrongly classified perps as futures, creating unfair competition and downplaying their risks. A group representing Cboe Global Markets and Citadel Securities also sued last week to reverse the CFTC's recent equity perp approval on the same grounds.

芝商所執行長、擁有40多年產業經驗的泰瑞・達菲（Terry Duffy）說：「我認為他們在這裡把水攪得相當混濁。市場只要出現模糊不清……就可能傷害業務。」"I think they've muddied the waters here significantly," said Terry Duffy, CME's chief executive and a 40-plus-year industry veteran. "Anytime you have ambiguity in markets … that could hurt the business."

CFTC拒絕評論受訪者提出的疑慮。該機構先前曾表示，芝商所選擇以「法律戰」取代在新市場競爭。The CFTC declined to comment on the concerns raised in the interviews. It has previously said the CME had chosen "lawfare" over competing in the new market.

這場衝突是最新跡象，顯示川普政府對加密貨幣與預測市場的支持，正加劇其與傳統華爾街公司之間的緊張關係；部分預測市場龍頭企業也經營新交易所。The clash is the latest sign that the administration's support for crypto and prediction markets, where some of the leading companies also run new exchanges, is fueling tensions with traditional Wall Street firms.

民主黨在本週期中選舉後取得國會控制權，預料明年將與總統川普正面交鋒，並加強對這些新興產業的監督，圍繞市場風險的僵局可能進一步升高。The standoff over market risks could grow next year when Democrats, propelled by midterm elections this week that handed them control of Congress, are likely to square off against President Donald Trump and step up oversight of the young industries.

富蘭克林坦伯頓（Franklin Templeton）加密貨幣業務主管克里斯・柏金斯（Chris Perkins）說：「這些既有業者當中，許多已經很久沒有面臨這種程度的顛覆。」"Many of these incumbents haven't faced this type of disruption for a very long time," said Chris Perkins, head of crypto at Franklin Templeton.

交易所稱永續期貨是交換契約，而非期貨EXCHANGES SAY PERPS ARE SWAPS, NOT FUTURES

CFTC的5月決定引發競爭疑慮，導致交易所股價重挫。相關股價之後已回升，高階主管也表示，他們不認為永續期貨會對其以機構客戶為主的業務構成嚴重威脅。The CFTC's May decision sent exchange shares tumbling on competition fears. They have since recovered and executives have said they do not view perps as a serious threat to their predominantly institutional businesses.

他們最主要的擔憂在於，將永續期貨視為期貨，等於讓散戶投資人在一套他們認為對槓桿與交易對手風險防護不足的監管制度下，得以接觸這類新型產品。他們主張，這些產品更類似交換契約；交換契約面臨更嚴格的保證金、資本與申報要求，通常也較不容易讓散戶投資人參與。Their chief concern is that treating perps as futures gives retail investors access to the novel products under a regulatory regime they say provides insufficient safeguards against leverage and counterparty risk. They argue the products are more akin to swaps, which face tougher margin, capital and reporting requirements and are generally less accessible to retail investors.

傳統期貨讓交易對手鎖定未來某日的交易價格；交換契約則涉及交易對手依據某項基準，定期交換現金流或負債。交易所表示，由於永續期貨沒有到期日，且涉及交易對手之間持續支付資金費用，因此符合2010年《陶德—法蘭克法》（Dodd-Frank Act）對交換契約的定義。Traditional futures let counterparties lock in a transaction price for a later date, while swaps involve counterparties periodically exchanging cash flows or liabilities based on a benchmark. Because perps do not expire and involve ongoing funding payments between counterparties, they meet the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act's definition of a swap, exchanges say.

衍生性金融商品律師在公開法律說明中表示，芝商所提出了合理問題。CFTC則表示，永續期貨具有類似期貨的特徵，其資金費率機制是到期日的替代安排。In public legal notes, derivatives attorneys have said the CME has raised legitimate issues. The CFTC has said perps have futures-like features and their funding mechanism is a substitute for expiration.

Cboe全球衍生性商品主管羅布・霍金（Rob Hocking）說：「這個產業正處於轉折點，產品分類有可能變成競爭工具。」他並補充，這項發展對市場不利。"The industry is at an inflection point where product classification risks becoming a competitive tool," said Rob Hocking, global head of derivatives at Cboe, adding that the development is bad for markets.

「必須儘快有個解決方案。」"There needs to be a resolution in short order."

產品錯誤分類與24小時全年無休交易被視為風險MISCLASSIFICATION, 24/7 TRADING SEEN AS RISKY

受訪高階主管表示，對於行為模式更像交換契約的產品，採用期貨式保證金要求可能不足，並會在劇烈波動期間提高交易對手與流動性風險。Futures-style margin requirements may be inadequate for products that behave more like swaps, increasing counterparty and liquidity risks during intense volatility, the executives said.

部分人士表示，當交易員的永續期貨保證金低於所需水準時，自動平倉其部位的機制可能放大這類壓力。去年，這類機制引發比特幣部位史上最大規模平倉，並加劇拋售。Mechanisms that automatically liquidate traders' perp positions when their margin falls below required levels could amplify such stress, some said. Last year, such mechanisms triggered the biggest ever liquidation of bitcoin positions, amplifying the selloff.

CFTC在給期貨佣金商的諮詢文件中，強調有必要加強向客戶揭露延長交易時段期間自動平倉功能的相關資訊。The CFTC, in an advisory to futures commission merchants, has emphasized the need for enhanced customer disclosures about auto-liquidation features during extended trading hours.

與此同時，這些新興平台正推動將這些產品擴展到其他資產。部分平台高階主管表示，若美國沒有一套可行架構，這個市場將繼續在海外蓬勃發展，並把美國投資人和資金一併帶走。The upstart platforms, meanwhile, are pushing to extend the products into other assets. Some of their executives say that without a workable US framework, the market will continue to flourish overseas and take US investors and funds with it.

Kalshi機構業務主管安迪・羅斯（Andy Ross）說：「我認為，讓這些產品在美國監管範圍內透明交易，會比讓相關活動繼續留在境外更好。」"I think it's better for those products to trade transparently inside the US regulatory perimeter than for that activity to remain offshore," said Andy Ross, Kalshi's head of institutional business.

部分產業高階主管也表示，永續期貨會帶來市場結構風險。由於這些產品連續交易，交易所、結算機構、券商和交易員必須全天候管理部位並滿足追繳保證金要求。Some industry executives also say that perps pose market-structure risks. Because they trade continuously, the products require exchanges, clearing houses, brokers and traders to manage positions and meet margin calls around the clock.

受訪高階主管表示，這在規模較小、預先備妥資金的加密貨幣市場或許可行，但在較大型市場會變得更複雜，因為參與者必須在標準銀行營業時間之外調動大量現金和擔保品。That may work in smaller, pre-funded crypto markets, executives said, but it becomes more complex in larger markets where participants must move a lot of cash and collateral outside standard banking hours.

芝商所上月表示，已擱置其擬推出的24小時全年無休原油期貨合約，主因是商業客戶不願為週末交易櫃台配置人力。The CME last month said that it had shelved its proposed 24/7 crude oil futures contract mainly because commercial clients were unwilling to staff weekend trading desks.

機構級加密貨幣做市商B2C2執行長湯瑪斯・雷斯圖（Thomas Restout）說：「美國傳統金融市場基礎設施尚未完全具備支撐真正24小時全年無休市場的能力。」"The traditional financial market infrastructure in the US is not yet fully equipped for true 24/7 markets," said Thomas Restout, chief executive of B2C2, an institutional crypto market maker.

（Laura Matthews、Hannah Lang紐約報導；Michelle Price、Jonathan Spicer編輯）(Reporting by Laura Matthews and Hannah Lang in New York; editing by Michelle Price and Jonathan Spicer)