儘管AI股重挫，科技股料仍左右美股走勢

路易斯・克勞斯科普夫（Lewis Krauskopf）報導By Lewis Krauskopf

紐約，11月9日（路透）—— 即使人工智慧（AI）概念股大幅回檔，美國股市仍料將仰賴科技股表現；投資人也正警戒未來幾週可能絆倒這項交易的障礙。NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Even with the steep pullback in AI names, the US stock market is poised to rely on the performance of technology shares — and investors are on guard for obstacles that could trip up the trade in the coming weeks.

科技股與AI相關股票歷時一個月的下挫，本週演變成標普500科技類股逾六年來最大單日跌幅。投資人擔心，民主黨在期中選舉勝選，將導致資料中心支出放緩，而這項支出一直是市場漲勢的核心。A month-long swoon in technology and AI-related stocks culminated this week in the biggest one-day drop for the S&P 500 technology sector in over six years. Investors are concerned Democratic victories in the midterm elections would lead to slower data-center spending that has been at the heart of the market's rally.

不過，即使出現下跌，科技股仍是美國股市基準指數標普500中規模最大、且遙遙領先的類股。雖然其影響力已小幅下降，但截至週四收盤，科技類股在標普500中的權重仍超過35%。Yet even with the drop, tech remains by far the biggest sector in the S&P 500, the benchmark index for the US stock market. Although its sway has diminished modestly, the tech sector still held a greater than 35% weight in the S&P 500 as of Thursday's close.

達科塔財富管理（Dakota Wealth Management）資深投資組合經理羅伯特・帕夫利克（Robert Pavlik）表示：「由於科技業有很大一部分對AI題材敏感，這將對整個類股造成影響，而這個類股在標普500中的權重又非常高。因此，AI走弱將拖累科技股，進而拖累標普500。」"Because so much of technology is AI-sensitive, it's going to have an impact on the entire sector, and that sector carries so much weight within the S&P 500," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management. "So weakness in AI is going to drag down tech, which drags down the S&P 500."

科技類股占標普500市值的比重，仍高於2000年網路泡沫時代高峰期間達到的水準。The sector's percentage of S&P 500 market capitalization remains above the level it reached during the height of the Internet bubble era in 2000.

單看科技類股，並無法完整反映AI的影響力。例如，三家在資料中心大舉支出的超大規模雲端業者——Alphabet、亞馬遜（Amazon）和Meta Platforms——被歸類在其他類股。The tech sector alone does not fully capture AI's influence. For example, three hyperscalers spending massively on data centers — Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms — are classified in other sectors.

科技股權重持續偏高，是該類股在2022年10月開始的美股多頭市場期間大漲的副產品。即使計入科技類股最新一波下滑，該類股在此期間仍上漲逾200%，幾乎是標普500漲幅的兩倍。The continued heavy weighting of technology is a byproduct of the huge gains for the sector during the US stock bull market that began in October 2022. Even with the tech sector's latest slide, it has gained more than 200% over that period, nearly double the S&P 500's gain.

部分AI最大贏家儘管近期下跌，今年來仍累積可觀漲幅。例如，Sandisk股價在2026年仍上漲約250%，戴爾科技（Dell Technologies）最近上漲約160%，美光科技（Micron Technology）則上漲140%。Some of the biggest AI winners are still logging significant year-to-date gains despite their recent slides. For example, shares of Sandisk remained up about 250% in 2026, while Dell Technologies was last up about 160% and Micron Technology had gained 140%.

隨著股市週五略為反彈，標普500今年來最近上漲近8%，科技類股上漲約11%。As stocks rebounded somewhat on Friday, the S&P 500 was last up nearly 8% for the year, with the tech sector up about 11%.

Horizon Investment Services執行長查克・卡爾森（Chuck Carlson）表示：「如果有人正處於獲利了結模式，仍有獲利可以了結。」"If somebody is in a profit-taking mode, there are still profits to be had," said Chuck Carlson, CEO at Horizon Investment Services.

科技股下滑也讓這些股票的估值——至少表面上——看起來較為溫和。根據LSEG Datastream，科技類股的預估本益比——以未來12個月獲利預估計算——在2025年10月升破32倍後，截至週四已降至17.1倍。The slide in tech has also made valuations for the stocks appear — at least on the surface — more modest. The tech sector's forward price-to-earnings ratio — based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months — fell to 17.1 as of Thursday, according to LSEG Datastream, after it rose above 32 in October 2025.

整體標普500的本益比為17.9倍。本週是2017年以來科技類股本益比首次低於大盤。The P/E ratio for the overall S&P 500 stood at 17.9. This week marked the first time since 2017 that the tech sector's P/E has fallen below that of the broader market.

Truist Advisory Services投資長基思・勒納（Keith Lerner）表示，估值下滑意味著「可以說……市場已經反映了很多壞消息」。The drop in valuations means "arguably … the market is already pricing in a lot of bad news," said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.

勒納在週四的一份報告中表示：「我們正朝一種情況發展，也就是一點好消息就可能發揮很大作用。」"We are moving toward a situation where a little good news could go a long way," Lerner said in a note on Thursday.

投資人將關注未來幾週可能推動AI交易走向任一方向的多項潛在催化因素：Investors will be watching a number of potential catalysts in the coming weeks that could drive the AI trade in one direction or the other:

** ANTHROPIC首次公開發行（IPO）：AI實驗室Anthropic首次公開發行的進展，料將影響市場對AI交易的情緒。路透週四報導，潛在投資人正對該公司能否及時在下週展開IPO路演、以趕上11月掛牌上市提出疑慮。相關討論部分反映出科技股急跌造成的影響。** ANTHROPIC IPO: Developments with the initial public offering of AI lab Anthropic are poised to drive sentiment about the AI trade. Reuters reported on Thursday that potential investors are raising doubts about whether the company can proceed with its IPO roadshow next week in time for a November listing. The discussions reflect in part the impact of the sharp tech stock swoon.

** 科技公司財報：雖然第三季財報大多已公布完畢，但仍有一些關鍵業績尚未出爐。雲端公司CoreWeave將於週二發布財報，該公司一直是市場對AI建設融資憂慮的焦點。AI指標股輝達（Nvidia）預定於11月17日公布財報，戴爾（Dell）則於11月24日公布。** TECH EARNINGS: While the bulk of third-quarter earnings reports have finished, some key results remain. Cloud company CoreWeave, which has been at the center of concerns about financing the AI buildout, reports on Tuesday. AI bellwether Nvidia is due on November 17, while Dell reports on November 24.

** 總體環境：涉及美國與以色列對伊朗戰爭的進展，將影響股市整體走勢。外界預期國會權力變化可能帶來衝突終結，這項預期推動油價本週走低，進而提振股市。但投資人對期中選舉結束後緊張情勢升高保持警戒。投資人也密切關注利率走向，以及聯準會未來幾個月將以多大幅度升息以壓抑通膨。下週的消費者物價指數（CPI）報告將是一項考驗。** MACRO BACKDROP: Developments involving the US-Israeli war with Iran are set to sway stocks broadly. Expectations that the shift in Congress could bring about the end to the conflict helped drive oil prices lower this week, which in turn helped stocks. But investors are wary of an escalation in tensions with the midterms finished. Investors are also closely watching the path for interest rates and how significantly the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the coming months to tamp down inflation. One test comes with next week's Consumer Price Index report.

（路易斯・克勞斯科普夫報導；柯林・巴爾與羅德・尼克爾編輯）(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, editing by Colin Barr and Rod Nickel)