Centaline: 2024 Q4 Unsold Inventory Surpasses 22,300 Units, Hits 21-Year High
In Q4 2024, the unsold inventory of first-hand private residential units reached 22,323, a slight 0.8% increase from the previous quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarterly rise and the second-highest level in 21 years, trailing only Q4 2003's 22,485 units. The inventory has now remained above the 20,000-unit threshold for six consecutive quarters.
According to Centaline Property Research, the ongoing decline in interest rates has improved the market sentiment, prompting developers to accelerate sales efforts. As a result, while new project launches increased in Q4, some unsold units from older projects were successfully sold, slightly easing the pace of inventory growth. Looking ahead to Q1 2025, with multiple new projects hitting the market, unsold inventory is expected to exceed 23,000 units.
Regional Breakdown: Kowloon Inventory Climbs, New Territories Declines
Based on data from 361 new projects, there were 134,238 total units, of which 111,753 were sold, leaving 22,323 unsold. This represents a 0.8% (169-unit) increase from the previous quarter. The unsold inventory ratio dropped slightly to 16.6%, down 0.1 percentage points. However, it is expected that over 20,000 units will remain unsold through the first half of 2025, which could set a new record for the longest period of inventory exceeding this level, surpassing the six-quarter stretch from Q3 2002 to Q4 2003.
By region, Kowloon saw the largest increase in inventory, rising by 634 units to 10,724. The increase was mainly driven by weaker sales in Wong Tai Sin (including Kai Tak), where projects like Twin Victoria, The Pavilia Forest II, and Double Coast I struggled to sell. This has kept Kowloon's unsold inventory above 10,000 units for three consecutive quarters.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong Island inventory rose by 574 units to 3,176, led by increases in North Point (309 units) and Aberdeen (258 units). In contrast, the New Territories saw a sharp decline, with inventory dropping by 1,039 units to 8,423. This was largely due to strong sales in Tuen Mun and Tseung Kwan O, where projects like Gold Coast Bay-The Uppland, Novo Land Phase 3B, Park Seasons, and Manor Hill performed well.
Developer Performance: New World Tops Inventory Growth
Among developers, New World Development experienced the largest inventory growth in Q4, with an increase of 571 units, bringing their total to 870. CK Asset Holdings followed with an increase of 285 units, reaching 582. Developers with over 1,000 unsold units include Sun Hung Kai Properties (3,712), Henderson Land Development (3,146), Wheelock Properties (1,829), and Sino Land (1,425).
Outlook for 2025
The removal of property cooling measures has lowered entry costs for buyers, which, combined with declining interest rates, is expected to attract more investors and owner-occupiers. However, with unsold inventory remaining high and new projects continuously entering the market, developers will likely face ongoing pressure to clear inventory throughout the year.