NIDA Poll: Prayut tops list of preferred successors if Paetongtarn quits

A recent opinion poll indicates that a majority of respondents believe that suspended prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra should resign, with Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, a prime ministerial candidate from the United Thai Nation Party, topping the list of preferred successors.

The poll, conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), found that 42.37% of respondents think Paetongtarn should step down, amid ongoing political tensions, while 39.92% believe she should dissolve the House to pave the way for a general election.

Only 15.04% said she should stay, 1.37% called for a coup, 0.99% had no preference and 0.31% declined to answer.

When asked who they would support as the next prime minister, if Paetongtarn left office, 32.82% of respondents prefer Gen Prayut, currently a Privy Councillor and former prime minister.

Another 27.94% said they do not support any of the candidates currently eligible under the Constitution.

Other preferred candidates include Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai party (11.53%), Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai party (10.92%), any eligible candidate (9.77%), Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, United Thai Nation party (3.82%), Jurin Laksanawisit, Democrat party (1.83%), Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, Palang Pracharath party (0.84%).

On the question of whether Parliament should call a censure debate, 64.43% of respondents said political parties should join forces to submit a no-confidence motion against the prime minister and/or cabinet ministers, 26.26% opposed the move, 7.48% had no opinion and 1.83% declined to answer.

The survey, titled “Which path should Thai politics take?” was conducted between July 4 and 7 and included responses from 1,310 people, aged 18 and above in various regions, of various education levels, occupations and income groups.

Meanwhile, a Suan Dusit Poll, released on Saturday, found that a majority of Thais want the newly appointed Cabinet to prioritise solving the cost of living and economic problems. Many remain concerned about the qualifications and integrity of the ministers though.

The poll, conducted by Suan Dusit University between July 8 and 11, surveyed 1,191 people nationwide. It focused on public expectations of the new Cabinet and the impact of U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump.

The results show that 65.41% of respondents want the Cabinet urgently to address the rising cost of living and economic hardships.

At the same time, 62.97% expressed concern that some Cabinet members may be somewhat opaque or be unqualified for their roles.

When asked to compare the new Cabinet to Paetongtarn's previous one, 41.56% said they believe that the current lineup may not perform as well, reflecting deep public skepticism about the administration’s capabilities.

Regarding external factors, 50.04% of respondents said they are worried about the economic impact of the Trump administration’s plan to impose a 36% tariff on Thai goods imported into the US.

Additionally, 50.63% said they do not believe that the Thai government will successfully negotiate a resolution to the issue.

Pornphan Buathong, president of Suan Dusit Poll, said that the survey results, on both the new Cabinet and Trump’s tariff plan, reflect a shared concern.

As such, the government faces high public expectations, especially on economic matters, which remain the people's top priority.

She noted that doubts about ministerial qualifications and the government’s ability to handle external pressures, such as US trade policy, are central challenges.

A lack of public confidence in the government’s negotiating ability, she said, is a critical test which the administration must address if it is to rebuild trust.

Assistant Professor Yodchai Chutikamo, a lecturer at Suan Dusit University’s School of Law and Politics, said the country’s worsening economy makes it clear that the public wants urgent action to address the cost-of-living crisis.

He noted, however, that there is widespread concern about whether the ministers are actually qualified for their roles, with many citizens believing the new Cabinet may perform even worse than the last. This reflects a severe lack of public confidence, he opined.

He also warned that Trump’s tariff policy could further harm Thailand’s economy and that the new Cabinet, still led by the Pheu Thai party, will face mounting pressure, not only from domestic issues, including the prime minister’s own political challenges, but also from an unpredictable U.S. trade strategy.