Neck and neck with Thailand

July 7, 2025:Donald Trump and Elon Musk are trying to make sure future historians point to America and not Thailand when talking about the most bizarre politics.

Just when Thailand is heading toward a freakish deadlock, a outlandish “solution” has emerged in the United States, in the form of a no-nonsense promise to form a new and major political alternative.

Musk wants to set up a new political party to break the Republican-Democrat virtual monopoly of powers. (The current system is considered democracy, but both Republicans and Democrats will beg to differ. They are calling each other dictators in disguise. There are three possibilities then: First, one camp is right and the other is wrong. Second, both camps are right. Third, both camps are wrong. But whichever possibility is true, America is dictatorial, full stop. On the surface, the third scenario is two “democratic” parties accusing each other of being dictatorial, but why are they lying? Lies are the biggest characteristic of dictatorship to begin with.)

Anyway, Musk wants to make it seem more democratic by planning to form a new party. Trump doesn’t like it, and this is what he said on Truth Social on Sunday: “I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely ‘off the rails,’ essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks.”

Which one is more spectacular? The Hun Sen-Shinawatra breakup or the crumbling of the Trump-Musk relationship? Both cases are still on-going but it’s definitely a very close race.

And while Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul wanted to censure a government he was a big part of until days ago, check Trump’s latest statement on Musk out:

“He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States – The System seems not designed for them. The one thing Third Parties are good for is the creation of Complete and Total DISRUPTION & CHAOS, and we have enough of that with the Radical Left Democrats, who have lost their confidence and their minds!”

This is bigger and more beautiful than Trump’s “Big, beautiful bill” that Musk vehemently opposes. Critics say the tax and spending bill, requiring a massive amount of funding, will only strengthen dictatorial agendas and hurt America.

Did Musk know about the bill when he was Trump’s biggest ally? Did Anutin know about the Shinawatras’ Digital Wallet and Entertainment Complex when he was their biggest partner?

It can be a photo finish.

Cambodian columnist: Thai poll meant to hide fragility

July 6, 2025: Paetongtarn Shinawatra must be wishing the Thai media were like the one in Cambodia.

Would the Thai media describe her as a national heroine who brought peace to Thailand and is defending its sovereignty to the best of her ability?

This is what Roth Santepheap said in Khmer Times: “Samdech Techo Hun Sen is not an ordinary political figure. He is a statesman who ended Cambodia’s darkest chapter, a unifier who dismantled the Khmer Rouge, brokered national reconciliation, and laid the foundations for the Paris Peace Agreements and make end the civil war by Win-Win Policy. Under his leadership, Cambodia evolved from the ashes of civil war into one of ASEAN’s fastest-growing economies. He is blunt, pragmatic, and unwavering—qualities that regional leaders often find uncomfortable, especially when he speaks the truth.

“…Samdech Techo Hun Sen’s recent statements stem from a deep and legitimate concern for Cambodia’s sovereignty, security, and historical integrity. When he warned of instability in Thai politics, it was not meddling—it was a calculated message from a seasoned geopolitical mind. His words, far from being speculative, were a strategic call for caution and responsibility before tensions spiral further out of control.”

It was an immediate response to Thailand’s latest NIDA poll, which suggested a large number of Thais believe Hun Sen was going into border troubles with Thailand with self interest in mind and his prediction that the Bangkok government wouldn’t last three more months was not a prophecy, but pure speculation.

“The Thai response has revealed a troubling fragility. A confident, mature government does not panic over external analysis—it counters it with truth, diplomacy, and respect. Character assassination via polling only betrays weakness and deflection,” the Cambodian columnist said.

While attacking NIDA pollsters as a pro-government network doing everything to support Paetongtarn, Roth failed to mention that the same group recently released a finding showing her popularity had plunged miserably in her country.

Meanwhile in Thailand, media opinions said Paetongtarn were always steps behind Cambodia when it comes to diplomatic moves related to the border dispute.

High tariffs and political interferences

July 5, 2025: I’ll buy if your daughter is the seller. That’s how trade can be manipulated for a hidden agenda.

The above example is the “ground level”. Internationally, it’s the same, though. A country can say we will buy from you if this or that person is the seller, or represents the seller.

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. High tariffs are virtually a "We are not buying" statement. It can increase the costs of those goods for consumers and businesses in the buying country, but the buying country always has other choices. The selling countries have fewer ones, or no choice at all. What do they do? They have to listen to the buyers.

For example, a prospective buyer may say, “We need an oversea military base, so what can you do about it?” Or, “We used to be comfortable negotiating with that party, but it’s a shame because that party is now in the opposition bloc.”

The seller may walk away. Or the selling country may buckle, thinking “That is one huge market and we can’t lose it.”

The “customers are the bosses” is not just a cliché. It’s also the most effective tool to dictate global politics if applied shrewdly.

When rivalry pauses and empathy reigns

July 4, 2025: Among things that put life into perspective is the untimely passing away of football star Diogo Jota.

Thursday’s car crash in Spain snatched away one of the sport’s great talents, who was young, had just won the English premiership medal in May and got married only 10 days before his death.

He was humble, always playing with a smile on his face. Rival fans could not bring themselves to hate him. Killed alongside him in the accident was his younger brother younger brother, André Silva, who was also a footballer.

Hours before he died, the Liverpool and Portuguese international star, born in 1996, had shared a final Instagram post. It was a video featuring some highlights from the wedding day with a caption: “A day we will never forget.”

Jürgen Klopp, a former Liverpool manager who worked with the player for a few years, said about the death: “There must be a bigger purpose, but I can’t see it.”

It was a wedding photo of the beautiful couple and their three small kids that broke even the strongest hearts. Tributes and condolences poured in from around the football world and beyond. The UK government sent flowers. Real Madrid performed a one-minute silence during training. Manchester United online influencers in Thailand and everywhere overseas switched to respectful dresses, cancelled fan rivalry content and gave mournful expressions.

It was not a diplomatic, let’s-get-this-over-with attitude. The outpouring of empathy was heartfelt, with tears brimming in the eyes.

May you rest in peace, Diogo Jota.

"Weird" threatens to get weirder

July 3, 2025: Opposing politicians holding hands smilingly is normal, but there may be exceptions.

It took Anutin Charnvirakul just a few days to express that kind of camaraderie with People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut at an opposition meeting this week, in which Palang Pracharath’s Prawit Wongsuwan was nowhere to be seen.

How long did it take for Prawit and Natthaphong to start sharing the same table anyway, let alone posing together, beaming, for a photo op?

Of course, Anutin quickly dismissed reporters’ teasing speculation that he was trying to charm his way to the top in case Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is constitutionally disqualified.

“We’ve known each other for a long time and I was just there to tell everyone that we would perform as an opposition party to the best of our ability,” he said.

“Nothing you’ve heard or thought is true,” he told reporters.

He has to be right. The People’s Party supporting him (an out-of-this-world conspiracy theory in which the party would send him to the political summit while agreeing to remain in the opposition itself) will be way too far-fetched. It would top it all, being the mother of all ironies. The Pheu Thai-conservatives alliance would pale beside it.

But with the People’s Party having no prime ministerial nominee left, it can either vote to reject or support anybody else in case of a Paetongtarn disqualification. Anutin remains his party’s official candidate, so it’s normal that some people are having fun speculating, despite the two parties’ apparently-irreconcilable differences.

In addition to the notion that anything is possible in politics, parliamentary mathematics is another reason why many are dreaming. A strong alliance between Bhumjaithai and the People’s Party will need just a few rebellious government votes to finish off the other side.

It shouldn’t get any weirder than the handholding, though.

Everything tied together

July 2, 2025: How the judges will rule on the Paetongtarn case, what happens to the Bhumjaithai censure plan, whether an acting prime minister can dissolve the House, and where the People’s Party stands regarding the legal and political storms battling the prime minister are intricately linked together with the immediate course of Thailand at stake.

A House dissolution will definitely start a new chapter of uncertainties. However, whether it can happen at all is a question more immediate than when it will happen. If the Constitutional Court rules against Paetongtarn Shinawatra, there will be all kinds of legal and political questions/maneuverings. House dissolution will also become extremely controversial if Bhumjaithai’s censure plan materializes into a legitimate parliamentary motion.

The People’s Party is playing a big role. Supporting Bhumjaithai’s censure idea could delay the very thing the Oranges want the most, a House dissolution. A lot of noises are coming out of the People’s Party saying that censure timing has to be good, and “now” may not be so.

The disagreement is very understandable. Censuring Paetongtarn over the phone call between her and Hun Sen demands an awkward talk on an awkward issue which could favour “conservatives” more than “liberals”. Attacking Paetongtarn over Cambodia may make the People’s Party fall into the “national sovereignty trap”. In other words, the Oranges may have to side with extreme nationalism and favour an institution it always is critical of, the military.

A downright demise of Paetongtarn at the hands of the Constitutional Court could spare the People’s Party that misery, but it would create a new one, particularly if somehow the party needs Pheu Thai for a snap election alliance. A power fight over key ministries and big economic agendas could doom such a partnership. To underline the certainty of such conflicts emerging, the People’s Party has this week called for withdrawal of the Entertainment Complex bill, Pheu Thai’s heart and soul.

In case the House of Representatives stays with Paetongtarn gone, there will be controversies over who should and could replace her. Parties are running out of prime ministerial nominations and qualified nominees have serious problems more or less. A deadlock is highly possible.

World diplomacy may have changed forever

July 1, 2025: Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension from duty follows a phone conversation at the highest national level, so everyone of her global counterparts had better watch out.

No disrespect to Cambodia, but if it can do it, anyone else will be tempted. Countries with greater technological advancement certainly can sabotage perceived enemies without a single shot fired.

This is what a popular AI system has to say about direct phone contacts between world leaders:

“Recordings are not typically public and are often kept confidential due to diplomatic sensitivities and national security concerns. The recordings can be subject to various levels of classification and are usually handled with great care. There have been instances of leaks or disclosures, but they are exceptions rather than the norm.”

Cambodia has made sure “rare” is not getting any rarer. It has shown the world how effectively and disastrously a leak can affect opponents at the highest level across the border.

It only took days for the leak of Paetongtarn’s phone conversation with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen to trigger a massive protest against her in Thailand and result in her suspension from prime ministerial duty.

And Thailand is not the only “divided” country in the world where anti-government protests take place regularly for far “lesser” reasons.

Imagine things that are not supposed to go public between China and America or between America and Israel are leaked with certifiable voices. We can kiss “open-heart” phone calls between superpower leaders goodbye.

But it’s not just long-distance talks. There may come a day when Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and the likes are asked to leave their phones before entering a summit room. Maybe those people frisking each other before settling down together privately in that room is a bit of a stretch, but there’s a first time for everything.

Daily updates and opinions on local and world events by Tulsathit Taptim