丹麥情報機構稱，預期俄羅斯未來數月將升高混合戰

索倫・傑佩森（Soren Jeppesen）報導By Soren Jeppesen

哥本哈根，9月24日（路透社）——丹麥國防情報局週四在一份新的威脅評估中表示，俄羅斯未來數月可能會加強對西方的混合戰。COPENHAGEN, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West in the coming months, Denmark's defence intelligence service said in a new threat assessment on Thursday.

德國近期指控俄羅斯企圖在萊比錫／哈勒機場發動無人機攻擊，促使歐盟成員國呼籲對俄羅斯祭出新制裁後，在歐洲領土上的混合戰與破壞行動再度引發關注。Hybrid warfare and sabotage on European soil gained renewed attention after Germany recently blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport, prompting European Union members to call for new sanctions against Russia.

莫斯科一再否認涉及混合戰、在北大西洋公約組織（NATO）國家從事破壞行動，或策劃任何對抗。Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in hybrid warfare, sabotage operations in NATO countries, or plotting any confrontation.

俄羅斯駐丹麥大使館駁斥這項評估，稱其缺乏可信證據支持，並指控以丹麥為首的西方國家升高圍繞烏克蘭的緊張情勢。The Russian embassy in Denmark rejected the assessment as unsupported by credible evidence and accused the West, led by Denmark, of driving up tensions over Ukraine.

大使館在書面聲明中表示：「我們持續警告這種做法具有破壞性，但這些警告正遭到忽視。」"Our persistent warnings about the destructiveness of such an approach are being ignored," the embassy said in a written statement.

預期攻擊將更頻繁MORE FREQUENT ATTACKS EXPECTED

丹麥國防情報局表示，俄羅斯將更頻繁地對西方與NATO發動攻擊，且「對遭鎖定國家造成的後果將比以往更嚴重」。The defence intelligence service said Russia would carry out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO "with greater consequences for the countries targeted than in the past".

該局並表示，俄羅斯對一個或數個與俄羅斯接壤的NATO國家發動有限軍事攻擊的風險「很低但正在上升」。It added that there was "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border Russia.

評估指出：「有限軍事攻擊將是俄羅斯孤注一擲的行動，且和加劇的混合攻擊一樣，可能在未來數月發生。」"A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months," it said.

情報局局長湯瑪斯・阿倫基爾（Thomas Ahrenkiel）在記者會上表示，這類攻擊可能包括使用無人機或飛彈等長程武器，對支援烏克蘭的基礎設施發動個別打擊，或以烏克蘭製無人機進行假旗行動。Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference.

他表示，俄羅斯也可能在保護俄羅斯少數族群的藉口下，向NATO邊境地區部署有限數量的部隊。He said Russia could also deploy a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.

他說：「目的不是接管這個國家，而是分裂NATO。」"The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO," he said.

根據丹麥軍方說法，一艘俄羅斯巡防艦上週在丹麥外海國際水域，向一架奉派前往拍攝該艦的丹麥軍用直升機發射兩枚照明彈，其中一枚差點擊中直升機。A Russian frigate last week fired two flares towards a Danish military helicopter sent to photograph it in international waters off Denmark, with one narrowly missing the aircraft, according to the Danish military.

丹麥韌性署（Danish Resilience Agency）週四另在一份聲明中表示，俄羅斯很可能企圖對丹麥發動具破壞性的網路攻擊，並上調威脅等級。In a separate statement on Thursday, the Danish Resilience Agency said it was likely that Russia would attempt to carry out destructive cyberattacks against Denmark and it raised its threat level.

（索倫・傑佩森、路易絲・拉斯穆森、雅各布・格倫霍爾特－佩德森與斯蒂娜・雅各布森報導；湯瑪斯・德平豪斯與亞歷克斯・理查森編輯）(Reporting by Soren Jeppesen, Louise Rasmussen, Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Stine Jacobsen; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Alex Richardson)