德國邦選舉失利恐牽制梅爾茨改革議程

詹姆斯・麥肯齊（James Mackenzie）報導By James Mackenzie

柏林，9月23日（路透）——德國極右派在本月東部德國和柏林的邦選舉中大獲全勝後，總理梅爾茨或許保住了職位，但這場衝擊可能迫使他的聯合政府淡化其承諾的改革議程。BERLIN, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Chancellor Friedrich Merz may have survived the triumph of the far right in this month's state elections in eastern Germany and Berlin but the shock to his coalition could force him to water down his promised reform agenda.

出口民調顯示，他所屬的保守派勢將遭遇史上最慘敗績後，梅爾茨隨即採取罕見做法，宣布自己將留任，以推動稅制、年金和醫療制度等一系列改革在國會通過。Merz took the unusual step of announcing immediately after exit polls showed his conservatives were on course for their worst-ever defeat that he would stay in office to get a raft of reforms to the tax, pensions and health systems through parliament.

他的中間偏左聯盟夥伴社會民主黨（SPD）在薩克森-安哈特（Saxony-Anhalt）和柏林選舉中也大幅失利，但在梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞（Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania）保住執政地位；該黨也承諾繼續與梅爾茨所屬的基督教民主聯盟（CDU）合作。不過，聯合政府內部要求政府採取行動、反映選舉結果的壓力日益升高。His partners in the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who also lost heavily in elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin while holding on in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, also pledged to continue their alliance with his Christian Democrats (CDU). But there has been increasing pressure from within the coalition for the government to do something to reflect the votes.

本週流傳的一份社民黨策略文件指出：「邦選舉過後，不能只是簡單照常運作。」文件呼籲推出一項「德國版『新政』，在轉型時期不讓人民孤立無援」。"There can't be a simple carrying on as normal after the state elections," an SPD strategy document circulated this week said, calling for a "German 'New Deal' that doesn't leave people alone in a period of transition".

文件表示，社民黨將於12月召開特別黨大會，屆時領導層將提出新的政策主張。It said a special party meeting would be called in December where the leadership would issue new policy proposals.

儘管今年上半年經濟成長優於預期，民調顯示，週日的選舉結果深受生活水準受壓縮，以及選民對經濟問題的憂慮影響，尤其是通膨上升。Despite stronger-than-expected growth in the first half of the year, surveys showed Sunday's election results were heavily influenced by squeezed living standards and voter worries over economic issues, notably rising inflation.

梅爾茨意識到選民情緒，因此在柏林和梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞週日投票的兩天前，宣布減稅25億歐元，並計畫設置價格上限，協助駕駛人因應伊朗戰爭推升的燃油價格。Aware of the mood of the electorate, two days before Sunday's votes in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz announced a €2.5 billion tax cut and plans for a price cap to help motorists deal with fuel prices sent soaring by the Iran war.

此外，梅爾茨的聯盟夥伴也施壓，要求修改改革方案中的部分內容；這些內容已讓本月投票的德國東部各邦執政黨支持度流失，其中包括改變提前退休規定的計畫。There has also been pressure from his partners to change sections of the reform package that have drained support for the ruling parties in the eastern German states which voted this month, including plans to change the rules on retiring early.

社民黨信函表示，對於擬取消民眾在繳納保費至少45年後可於63歲領取全額年金退休的選項，仍有「未解問題」。The SPD letter said there were "open questions" about the proposed scrapping of the option for people to retire on a full pension at the age of 63 as long as they had paid contributions for at least 45 years.

這項措施由政府任命的年金委員會建議提出，是一套措施的一部分；該方案還包括在公共年金中加入資本市場元素，以在高齡化之際維持制度負擔能力。The measure was recommended by a government-appointed pension commission as part of a package of measures that included adding a capital markets element to public pensions to keep the system affordable as the population ages.

但在東部，民眾通常比西部居民儲蓄少，且許多人在1990年德國統一後經歷長期失業，因此許多人認為這類改變將對他們造成格外沉重的打擊。But many in the east, where people typically have lower savings than in the west and lots went through long spells of unemployment in the wake of German reunification in 1990, feel such a change would hit them disproportionately hard.

來自基民盟和社民黨的東部各邦邦總理已呼籲撤回這項擬議變更；社民黨信函也表示，相關提案已在勞工與雇主之間造成「極大的不確定性」。Eastern state premiers from both the CDU and SPD have already called for the proposed change to be scrapped and the SPD letter said the proposals had caused "enormous uncertainty" among both workers and employers.

薩克森-安哈特與梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞選後民調顯示，許多選民擔心自身經濟安全，也不信任梅爾茨；他的支持度已降至歷史低點。Surveys after the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania showed many voters feared for their personal economic security and mistrusted Merz, whose ratings have hit historic lows.

強烈反對修改提前退休規定的梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞社民黨籍邦總理曼努埃拉・施韋西格（Manuela Schwesig）本週表示，梅爾茨需要重新贏回選民信任。她說：「我不知道他能不能成功。」Manuela Schwesig, the SPD state premier in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, who has argued strongly against changing the early retirement rules, said this week Merz needed to regain the trust of voters. "I don't know if he will succeed," she said.

改革承諾REFORM PLEDGES

在接連敗選後，梅爾茨本人也承認，政府需要正視許多選民並不覺得其改革計畫「公平」。In the wake of the defeats, Merz himself recognized that the government needed to acknowledge that many voters did not feel it was being "fair" in its reform plans.

但已有警告指出，若拆解夏季已敲定的改革計畫，將削弱外界對德國政策規劃的信心；此時歐洲最大經濟體在歷經多年衰退後，正看似可望實現溫和成長。But already there have been warnings that picking apart reform plans agreed over the summer would undermine confidence in German policy planning just as Europe's largest economy looks like achieving modest growth after years of recession.

西班牙IESE商學院教授、德國財政部科學諮詢委員會成員馬丁・雅各布（Martin Jacob）說：「如果我們現在重新啟動整個程序，只會拖延這些改革，而我們需要這些改革。」"If we start this whole process again now, it just delays these reforms and we need them," said Martin Jacob, a professor at Spain's IESE Business School and a member of the German finance ministry's scientific advisory board.

他說：「這很重要，因為國際投資人、德國投資人以及德國企業都需要知道自己所處的政策環境。」"And this matters, because international investors, German investors, companies in Germany need to know what policy environment they're in," he said.

然而，本週民調顯示，極右派德國另類選擇黨（AfD）在全國支持率接近30%，凸顯政府面臨的政治現實。However, opinion polls this week showing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party with almost 30% support across the country underline the political realities facing the government.

梅爾茨本能上親商且在財政上保守，他於2025年上台，承諾進行廣泛改革，以振興德國經濟。由於中國持續不斷的競爭，以及烏克蘭戰爭導致來自俄羅斯的廉價石油與天然氣驟然中斷，德國工業基礎已持續遭到侵蝕。Merz, an instinctive pro-business fiscal conservative, came to power in 2025, pledging broad reforms to revive a German economy which has seen its industrial base steadily eroded by relentless competition from China and by the abrupt loss of cheap oil and gas from Russia due to the Ukraine war.

他背離德國多年來的財政正統路線，推出5,000億歐元支出方案，以重建德國老舊的基礎建設和縮減後的武裝部隊；在歷經數月爭論後，又於7月批准改革方案。Turning his back on years of German fiscal orthodoxy, he unleashed a €500 billion spending package to rebuild Germany's creaking infrastructure and its shrunken armed forces and, after months of wrangling, approved the reform package in July.

不過，ING全球總體經濟主管卡斯滕・布熱斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示，本月選舉揭露的政治危機，如今可能使這些改革面臨風險。But the political crisis laid bare by this month's elections could now put those reforms at risk, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.

他說：「多年的經濟停滯助長了那種碎片化。如今，碎片化將使擺脫停滯變得更加困難。」"Years of economic stagnation helped produce that fragmentation. Now the fragmentation will make the stagnation harder to escape," he said.

（瑪麗亞・馬丁內斯補充報導；托比・喬普拉編輯）(Additional reporting by Maria Martinez; Editing by Toby Chopra)