World Insights: Why is India hardening its stance against U.S.

The relationship between India and the U.S. has been on a slippery slope, facing one of its most significant challenges in decades, according to some experts.

NEW DELHI, Aug. 6 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to "substantially" increase the U.S. tariffs on Indian imports over its "massive" purchase of Russian oil, while India's foreign ministry vowed to "take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security," deepening the trade rift between the two countries.

Some Indian experts believe that the recent threats and tariffs from Trump are bargaining measures aimed at securing a trade deal with India that is favorable to the U.S.

In an earlier social media post, Trump said India's trade barriers were the "most strenuous and obnoxious." Calling India a "dead economy," Trump said the U.S. will impose a 25 percent tariff on Indian imports starting from Aug. 1, and warned of additional "penalties" for New Delhi's purchase of Russian weapons and energy.

India's Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said at a press conference on Friday that the India-Russia relationship is "stable and time-tested" and "should not be viewed through the prism of a third country."

The New York Times quoted two unnamed senior Indian officials on Saturday as saying there had been no change in Indian government policy regarding oil imports from Russia.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken a defiant stance against Trump's tariff warnings, encouraging people to buy locally made products. He also said India is positioned to become the world's third-largest economy, so it must remain vigilant in terms of economic interests.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

India and the U.S. have been locked in negotiations over a trade deal to reduce Trump's tariffs, but have yet to agree on a pact, even though New Delhi has cut tariffs on several U.S. imports.

A key sticking point is agriculture and dairy products, where India has long imposed high tariffs to protect its farm sector, which represents about half of the country's population.

Meanwhile, Trump's previous pledge to bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a quick end has reached an impasse. Recently, the Trump administration has been trying to force Moscow to compromise by restricting Russian oil and gas exports.

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the U.S.-based Wilson Center, said Trump "also wants India to buy (even) more (and pricier) American oil."

Experts said the Trump administration's latest anti-India rant was not surprising, as it has treated U.S. allies such as Japan and Canada with hostility to advance its own interests.

Some pointed out that the U.S. side, by ratcheting up the pressure on India, was also intimidating other trading partners that have not yet reached agreements with the U.S.

For India, Russia has historically been India's primary weapons supplier, and the two countries have enjoyed a close relationship for decades. In recent years, cheap Russian oil has helped India establish a lucrative business exporting refined products.

Moreover, Modi faces domestic pressure not to concede to Trump's demands, emphasizing India's economic priorities and urging citizens to support locally made products, experts said.

Driven by fast growth in recent years, India is on path to become world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

TIES UNDER STRAIN

It was a different picture in February, when Modi was among the first world leaders to visit the White House after Trump returned to office.

The bonhomie did not last long. Since then, the relationship between India and the U.S. has been on a slippery slope, facing one of its most significant challenges in decades, according to some experts.

Robinder Sachdev, president of the New Delhi-based think tank and research center Imagindia Institute, said that in the past six months, the mentality in India toward the U.S. is changing, with more intense dislikes and worries about the reliability of the U.S. and the Trump administration.

The bromance between the U.S. and Pakistan also raised eyebrows in India. According to a Guardian report, the two countries have recently signed deals on cryptocurrency, mining, and oil. Trump hosted Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for lunch in the White House.

Kugelman said U.S. relations with Pakistan have experienced "unexpected resurgence," adding that the sudden change signalled a serious challenge for New Delhi, given Washington and India had seen a deepening strategic partnership over the last two decades.

"Amid a worsening U.S.-India malaise, it's worth remembering that there is no U.S. ambassador in New Delhi and no confirmed assistant secretary of state for South Asia in D.C.," Kugelman said in a post on social media.

Indian political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta said suspicions towards the U.S. in New Delhi now resembled those of 1971, one of the lowest points of the India-U.S. relationship due to a major military conflict between India and Pakistan.

"The damage is already done," said Mehta. "No matter what deal they come to now, distrust of the U.S. is only going to continue to skyrocket."■