Things learned or expected from Parliament’s crucial vote

Thai politics has a funny way of surprising the public first and then making them shrug at the biggest jaw-dropper afterwards. While today’s (September 5) development is hugely ironic, it’s just adding to a growing list of the unexpected that is becoming less and less shocking.

Here are what students of Thai politics can learn or expect from the parliamentary appointment of Anutin Charnvirakul as the new prime minister:

1. The Red has been blown away. The isolation of the Pheu Thai Party has become extremely resounding, with its reluctant “allies” in the conservative camp exiting the crumbling coalition in droves, handing the premiership to Bhumjaithai’s Anutin in a landslide victory.

It’s the end of the era of the Shinawatras, with the future of former prime minister Thaksin doubly doubtful after he sparked wild speculation by flying out of Thailand on the eve of the vote (Thursday, September 4). Pheu Thai is looking even weaker than when it was in the opposition during the government of Abhisit Vejjajiva or after Prayut Chan-o-cha’s coup.

2. How the conditional tag team between Blue and Orange will continue and last remains to be seen. Quite a few People’s Party MPs declared while casting their votes that they were doing it only for an early House dissolution and a possible new charter.

It’s hard to imagine the People’s Party, formerly Move Forward, being betrayed again, but, no disrespect to Bhumjaithai and Anutin, everyone familiar with politics knows that its nasty side always finds the way.

On a fresh and early election, an excuse to backtrack on that will not be difficult to come up. New partners. “Cobras”. Emergency local or neighbourly or international problems. Anything can be cited to evade the agreement.

A charter referendum will not be easy to sidestep, as many conservatives have demanded it themselves. But attempts to change the Constitution drastically can break the formerly unthinkable alliance that is already upsetting many hardcore Orange fans.

3. The vote in Parliament has aggravated the hostility between the Red and the Orange. This can seriously affect the charter amendment process, although both parties will be together again in the opposition bloc. The speed with which they have gone from friends to frenemies to direct enemies is astonishing.

4. Supporting Anutin is the People’s Party’s big gamble. Not only has it upped the ante in the war with Pheu Thai, the People’s Party also risks jeopardising its charter reform agenda and sowing seeds of doubt among its own trusting fan base that gave it a major electoral victory the last time.

5. With Pheu Thai gone, it’s a goodbye to the Entertainment Complex agenda. Digital Wallet has begun a long time ago but its future is uncertain to say the least.

6. While political alliances have been serial shapeshifters, nothing really changes in the big picture. The key players in Thailand’s Romance of the Three Kingdoms will still all have knives behind their backs. “Nobody can trust anybody” is never a truer cliché.

7. Before the vote, Pheu Thai did have a good point. (It’s natural, though, that losers always sound more logical than the winners.) Following up on what Phumtham Wechayachai had said, Chaturon Chaisang told Parliament the executive branch would be a freak, albeit a minority government with the biggest opposition party pulling the strings.

What Phumtham and Chaturon failed to acknowledge was that their party was a big part of the problem.

Chaturon said, however, that he would not be surprised if the “caretaking” and “minority” Anutin coalition one day became a permanent and majority government with you-know-who as the newest partner.

That would equal the irony contributed by Pheu Thai after the last general election.

.8. Cambodia cannot celebrate. The Phnom Penh regime may have doomed a Thai administration, but new Thai rulers may even be tougher opponents. Gone will be personal connections, good or bad, that allegedly influenced decision-makings on the Thai side.

9. Anutin’s time at the top may be too short to revive the cannabis policy, but the People’s Party’s conditions say nothing about it. (Which means anything can happen.)

10. The mess can keep growing. Thais have seen the conservatives voting to elect Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister and the People’s Party MPs throwing support behind Anutin, who is from the camp that they had vowed to die fighting.

The line between right and wrong is never blurry, in fact, but politicians are good at making people believe that it is. This explains Thailand’s inescapable vicious circle.