Beijing Review: Navigating Uncertainty

BEIJING, June 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The global economy has been in turmoil ever since the Donald Trump administration kicked off its trade war with the rest of the world several months ago. The seriousness of the impacts brought about by Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" and the impacts of the uncertainty they have created necessitate an examination of the administration's motivations and goals for imposing them. So what is really behind the so-called reciprocal tariffs and Trump's unpredictable diplomatic moves? And, more importantly, can countries still find common ground and work together with the U.S.?

Jake Werner, Director of the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a U.S. think tank, shared his opinions at a recent conference in Beijing. Edited excerpts follow:

It would be helpful for the Chinese side to understand that the U.S. is in the midst of a deep political turmoil right now. The Trump administration is challenging a lot of the existing status quo institutions in the universities, business community, courts and military. It has a very challenging reform agenda. And it wants to change the face of the U.S. So this is primarily about what America is going to look like, rather than about U.S. relations with China or U.S. relations with Mexico.

It (the current turmoil) came from a set of tensions within U.S. society that are getting worked out politically now. I think it certainly does represent a break with the nature of U.S. foreign policy since the 1980s. So for around 40 years, the U.S. tried to maintain a global system that the U.S. would be at the top of. And it would regulate the economy and political relations and pursue a basic reform of the entire world in the direction of greater liberal democracy, greater free market economics. The current administration is putting an end to that.

In the global economy, both China and the U.S. are very deeply invested in global trade and investment, both countries face the threat of climate change. They have problems with transnational crime. They have an interest in stability so that we don't have catastrophic flows of migration.

There are numerous similarities and shared interests between both sides, but people on each side are struggling to recognize and acknowledge them. If we could accept and recognize these similarities, it would be easier to empathize with the other side. And then that is the starting point for trying to develop a shared agenda for addressing these problems. There is a lot that each side could learn from the other. And ultimately, a lot of these problems are only going to be addressed if the two countries can work with other countries around the world.

The alternative is conflict, because of the inequality and insecurity in the U.S. and China and other countries. That is ultimately what is driving a zero-sum sense that "in order for me to be secure, other people will have to be insecure." And that makes conflict inevitable. So the only way to get out of conflict is to recognize that "for me to be secure, other people have to be secure, too." That I think is the goal that we need to have when we work together on behalf of these shared interests.

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