Stirrings of discontent in Thailand over ASEAN-brokered ceasefire with Cambodia
The fragile ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, brokered by ASEAN in Malaysia, is coming under fire from the Thai military and right-wing nationalists who see it as capitulation rather than a compromise to end the escalating border clashes.
Initiated by US President Donald Trump, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who currently chairs ASEAN, managed to achieve an unconditional truce effective from July 28 between the warring neighbors.
Both sides agreed to activate many bilateral mechanisms, including the Regional Border Committee (RBC) and General Border Committee (GBC), to map out details of the ceasefire arrangement.
With Trump’s support, Anwar said Malaysia would coordinate an observer team to verify and ensure implementation of the ceasefire.
Mohd Nizam Jaffar, the chief of Malaysia's armed forces, arrived in Phnom Penh on July 29 to meet with his Cambodian counterpart Vong Pisen to coordinate the implementation of the ceasefire and the restoration of normalcy, according to Fresh News, a Cambodian media outlet.
The truce has been tenuous so far with Thailand accusing Cambodia of violations following the exchange of gunfire until the dawn of July 29 in many disputed areas, notably in the northeastern Thai provinces of Ubon Ratchathani, Si Sa Ket and Surin.
Cambodian Defense Ministry spokesperson Maly Socheata rejected the allegation, insisting that her country’s armed forces were strictly following all orders and agreements under the ceasefire.
A fragile truce
A meeting of the RBC, a forum of commanders from both sides, to discuss details of troop deployment and border security arrangements was postponed indefinitely after being scheduled for 7am on July 29.
The 2nd Army Region reported that the Cambodian side had violated the ceasefire agreement, claiming disturbances and weapons attacks in many areas. The Thai side, therefore, had responded to the provocation.
According to a military statement, after the Thai side complied with the ceasefire agreement after midnight and closely monitored and tracked the frontline situation, military units in the area reported Cambodian military operations in multiple incidents throughout the night until the morning.
Despite blaming Cambodia for violating the ceasefire, the Thai military said it could fully control 11 disputed locations — Phu Makheau Mountain, Chong An Ma pass, Chong Bok pass, Ta Moan Thom and Ta Kwai (Ta Kabei in Khmer) sanctuaries, Chong Chom pass, Chong Sai Taku pass, Palan Yao, Don Trual, Sattasom hill, and areas adjacent to the Preah Vihear temple.
Subsequently, the 2nd Army Region commander Boonsin Padklang managed to meet with his Cambodian counterpart Pov Heng, the commander of 4th Army Region, in Surin province. The two generals agreed to cease fire, ban the movement and reinforcement of troops, and establish effective communication lines and coordination.
The 1st Army Region Commander, Amata Boonsuya, reportedly reached a similar agreement with his Cambodian counterpart during a separate meeting.
All other matters concerning border security, such as normalization of the border pass operation, would be discussed at a meeting of the GBC, called by the defense ministers, to be hosted by Cambodia on August 4.
A total of 29 Thais — 15 civilians and 14 soldiers — lost their lives in the border skirmishes between July 24 and 29, while 53 civilians were injured. More than 188,000 people evacuated during the hostilities are waiting to return home.
There has been no official report of casualties on the Cambodian side, but Prime Minister Hun Manet told a press conference in Malaysia that his government had evacuated 140,000 people to the safer zones.
The role of trade in halting hostilities
US President Trump stepped into the fray earlier, warning he would not make any trade deals with Thailand and Cambodia if they continued the arm conflict. Both countries face a 36 per cent reciprocal tariff on all exports to the US in the absence of a deal.
“When all is done and peace is at hand. I look forward to concluding our trade agreement with both,” Trump said earlier.
Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai had a brief phone conversation with Trump upon arrival in Bangkok from the meeting in Malaysia on July 28. Phumtham praised Trump’s efforts to bring peace to the region and said there would be discussions and negotiations on tax matters in the near future.
“We also appreciate that from now on the international community would view Thailand as an admirable country that has many positive attributes, including its culture and way of thinking,” he said.
Thai Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said on Tuesday that trade negotiations with Washington were expected to be finalised before August 1. Initial estimates of damage to Thailand from the border conflict exceeded 10 billion baht, Pichai said.
Thai government under fire
Not all in Thailand are welcoming a trade deal being dangled to make peace. A female journalist got under Phumtham’s skin during a press briefing when she implied that the government had buckled under US pressure of tariffs and had held the military by the throat.
"You're asking about confidence just to put pressure on me. I won’t answer any further,” Phumtham fired back, before walking away from the interview and heading straight into the Government House building.
The slanted question from the journalist appears to point to dissatisfaction in Thai society with the term “immediate ceasefire without condition” in the agreement Thailand reached with Cambodia.
“The general principle of ceasefire negotiations is that we should require them to disarm or set conditions for negotiations. However, there have been observations that Khun Phumtham has instead accepted their conditions,” the journalist said in her question to Phumtham, “Did you level war criminal charges against Cambodia?”
Jatuporn Prompan, a former leader of the red shirt movement and now a bitter opponent of the Shinawatra clan, gathered a group of military supporters in front of the Thai Armed Forces headquarters to give moral support to the military in their fight against Cambodia.
The group accused the government of making a mistake by accepting the ASEAN ceasefire plan without setting any conditions when the Thai military had an upper hand in the conflict.“We absolutely do not trust this situation. I believe even the military has little confidence in this war — nor in the actions of the current government,” Jatuporn told reporters.
The group shared the sentiment with many right-wing activists not to link the conflict with Cambodia and a trade deal with the Trump administration. “We urge the government not to link the Trump-era tax negotiations with any compromise of our national sovereignty,” said Jatuporn.
Scrap the 2000 MOU with Cambodia
The right-wing nationalist called on the government to utilize the might of its armed forces to compel Cambodia to withdraw its petition to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the disputed border areas, as well as scrap the Memorandum of Understanding 2000 with Cambodia on the demarcation of land boundaries.
The government in Phnom Penh had notified the ICJ in June that it intended to refer the boundary dispute in the Emerald Triangle — the Hindu sanctuary of Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Tauch, and Ta Krabei — to be settled by the ICJ.
Thailand does not recognise the jurisdiction of The Hague-based ICJ in this bilateral matter. Bangkok wants to settle the boundary disputes through the Joint Boundary Commission (JBC), which was earlier scheduled to have a special session in September.
Former senator Khamnoon Sidhisamarn posted on his Facebook page that “soldiers sacrificed their lives to protect the operational line in accordance with the 1:50,000 scale, but the government has tightly held the 2000 MOU and the French-made 1:200,000 scale map. Please think about it.”
Khamnoon and many other right-wing politicians and activists believe that the ICJ had based its judgements in 1962 and in 2013 on the French map to award the Hindu sanctuary of Preah Vihear to Cambodia.
The 2000 MOU, the main document for land demarcation in modern times, signed by the Chuan Leekpai administration, also recognizes the French map produced by the joint boundary commission under the 1904 and 1907 Siam Franco treaties as key instruments for the JBC to demarcate the boundary between the two countries.
“With the 1:200,000 Map, it seemed Thailand was raped since 1962, yet we offered ourselves for such harassment again in 2000. What will we say to the Thai people today?” Khamnoon said on Facebook, adding, “Take this moment to announce the cancellation! We’ve already won on the battlefield, don’t let us end up disadvantaged by a bully neighbor at the negotiating table.”